老年人口影子红利与中国经济增长  

The Shadow Dividend for the Elderly Populationand China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：杨成钢[1] 孙晓海 YANG Chenggang;SUN Xiaohai(Population Research Institute,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan,610074,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学人口研究所,四川成都610074

出　　处：《人口学刊》2020年第4期30-41,共12页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:加快构建中国特色哲学社会科学学科体系、学术体系、话语体系研究(19VXK07);国家卫健委“家庭发展研究基地”项目(2020)。

摘　　要：老年人口影子红利的概念是指老年人口为其成年子女提供婴幼儿照料和家务帮扶等代际支持活动,年轻劳动人口(特别是育龄女性劳动人口)不因家务活动而退出劳动市场并得以维持较高劳动参与率,老年人因而对经济增长做出了贡献。根据“中国家庭追踪调查”的数据进行测算,可以看到对于全部子女而言,得到来自祖辈的全部代际支持可以使其就业率提高13.8个百分点,尤其对女性而言,若能得到祖辈代际支持,其就业率提高程度更达到了18.5个百分点。因此老年人口的代际支持对于提高成年子女的就业率具有明显的促进作用。再根据“中国统计年鉴”和各省统计年鉴的数据,按照分年龄段的科布道格拉斯生产函数计算2000-2017年期间中国的GDP增长与资本、劳动力投入之间的关系,综合两者得到2000-2017年老年人口影子红利在中国GDP增长中的贡献份额,最低占到了GDP的2.97%,最高则占到了GDP的3.67%。可见老年人口影子红利对中国经济增长做出了重要的贡献,发掘利用老年人口影子红利对于中国未来经济增长具有积极意义。The concept of shadow dividend for the elderly population refers to the intergenerational support activities for the elderly through providing child care and housework support,so that the young working population,especially the working women of childbearing age,not withdraw from the labor market due to domestic activities,thus maintaining a high labor force participation rate and promoting economic growth.According to the data from the Chinese family tracking survey,we can see that for all labor population the intergenerational support from their ancestors can increase their employment rate by 13.8 percentage points,especially for women,if they can get the support from their parents.The employment rate increased to 18.5 percentage points.Therefore,the intergenerational support of the elderly population has a signifi⁃cant role in promoting the employment rate of the adult children.Then according to the“China Statistical Yearbook”and the provincial statistical yearbooks,according to the Cobb Douglas production function of the age group,the relationship between China’s GDP growth and capital and labor input from 2000 to 2017 is calculated.Finally,the total share of the shadow dividend of the elderly population in China’s GDP growth over the years from 2000 to 2017 is the lowest accounted for 2.97% of GDP and the highest propor⁃tion of GDP’s 3.67%.It is visible that the shadow dividend of the elderly population has made an important contribution to China’s economic growth.Exploring and utilizing the shadow dividend of the elderly popula⁃tion is of positive significance for China’s future economic growth.

关 键 词：老年人口 人口红利 中国经济 影子红利 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]