一个冰雪条件下可能事故的道路交通流CA模型  

A CA model of road traffic flow with possible accident under ice and snowfall conditions

作　　者：史亚雷 庞明宝 SHI Yalei;PANG Mingbao(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2020年第3期86-91,96,共7页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(E2015202266)。

摘　　要：研究冰雪条件下基于CA可能事故的道路交通流微观仿真模型。通过对冰雪下道路附着系数变小造成车辆安全距离加大分析,定义加速、巡航和减速状态下安全距离,建立其可能发生交通事故及其概率统计的CA仿真模型,通过具体道路交通流仿真得到不同冰雪下密度和流量间关系基本相图,以及不同限速和流量控制下的事故概率。结果显示:随着冰雪下道路附着系数的变小,流量在急剧下降;当为冰膜、光滑压实雪时,限速和流量控制效果有限,封路、安装防滑链或特殊轮胎等是必要的措施;当为其它冰雪状态时,适宜的限速和流量控制是保证道路交通安全的重要措施。The problem of microscopic simulation model for road traffic flow with possible accident under ice and snowfall conditions was studied based on cellular automata(CA).By analyzing the wider vehicle safety spacings due to the the decreas of friction coefficient on ice and snowfall road,safety spacings were defined under acceleration,cruising and deceleration states,respectively.A CA simulation model with possible traffic accident and probability statistics was established.The fundamental phase diagrams of concrete road between traffic density and volume were obtained under different ice snowfall conditions.The accident probabilities were analyzed via the simulation experiments by using speed limits and incoming flow control.The results indicate that the traffic flux will decrease rapidly when the friction coefficient becomes small under ice snowfall conditions.It is necessary to close roads,add antiskid chain or special tires on the vehicles due to the limited effect of speed limits and incoming flow control when the road is covered with ice film,smooth compacted snow.Speed limits and incoming flow control with suitable values are effective measures to guarantee the traffic safety when roads are under the other conditions.

关 键 词：冰雪条件 元胞自动机模型 交通事故 道路交通流 附着系数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]