资本账户开放、信贷扩张和金融稳定性  

Capital Account Liberalization, Credit Boom and Financial Stability--Take the Example of 16 Listed Commercial Banks in China

作　　者：朱一鸣 程惠芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江杭州311121

出　　处：《浙江金融》2020年第5期33-46,共14页Zhejiang Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(18ZDA067)“新时期中国产业与贸易政策协同发展机制与实施路”。

摘　　要：本文利用89个国家从1973~2016年数据,考虑信贷扩张等影响银行业稳定性多项因素后,实证研究发展中国家在资本账户开放下所具有的系统性银行风险。研究发现在资本账户开放下,系统性银行风险并不会提高,同时加强金融监管和外汇储备积累都有助于增强金融稳定性。进一步研究发现,FDI流入和股权投资流入都有助增强银行业稳定性和降低系统性银行风险,但是债务投资显著流入会对银行业稳定性产生不利影响。This paper uses data from 89 countries from 1973-2016 and considers credit boom and other factors that affect the stability of the banking industry, and then empirically studies the systemic banking risks of developing countries under capital account liberalization. We found that systemic bank risks will decrease after capital account liberalization. Meanwhile, strengthening financial supervision and foreign exchange reserves will help enhance financial stability. Further research finds that both FDI inflows and portfolio inflows can help enhance the stability of the banking sector and reduce systemic banking risks, but debt inflows have negative impact on the stability of the banking sector.

关 键 词：资本账户自由化 系统性银行风险 信贷扩张 

分 类 号：F831.59[经济管理—金融学]