我国可利用降水量异常区预报模型及其预报效果  

Forecast Model and Forecast Effect for Utilizable Precipitation of Abnormal Area in China

作　　者：吴立君 WU Li-jun(Liaoning Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110006,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,辽宁沈阳110006

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第6期5-7,共3页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：为研究我国可利用降水量的分布情况,并对其进行科学预测,为水资源的合理规划及利用提供理论依据,采用全国160个测站的降水和气温资料计算出可利用降水量,运用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)分析技术,确定了我国可利用降水量的空间分布异常区;通过分析前一年1~12月北半球500hPa高度场、全球海平面气压场的主成分,初选与长江中下游分布区、东北东北部分布区、西南西南部(云南)分布区、东南沿海分布区、新疆北部分布区关系密切的气象因子;再通过逐步回归技术建立各异常区年可利用降水量的预报模型,拟合检验和试预报结果均达到精度要求。In order to study and predict the distribution of utilizable precipitation scientifically,this paper provides a theoretical basis for rational planning and utilization of water resources.The utilizable precipitation is calculated by using the precipitation and temperature data of 160stations in China.The spatial distribution anomaly area of utilizable precipitation is determined using the REOF technique.Principal component analysis of the 500hPa height field in the Northern Hemisphere and the global sea-level pressure field from January to December are carried out.The climatic factors which are closely related to the distribution area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the northeastern part of Northeast China,the southwestern part of the southwest,the southeast coastal area and the northern part of Xinjiang are chosen.The prediction model of annual utilizable precipitation in each abnormal area is established by stepwise regression technique.The fitting test and prediction results reach the precision requirement.

关 键 词：可利用降水量 REOF 主成分分析 逐步回归 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]