武器弹药密集度试验分组的蒙特卡洛模拟研究  

Simulation Research for Grouping of Ammunition Dispersion Test With Monte-Carlo Method

作　　者：邹陈来 王雨时[1] 王光宇 闻泉[1] 张志彪[1] ZOU Chenlai;WANG Yushi;WANG Guangyu;WEN Quan;ZHANG Zhibiao(School of Mechanical Engineering,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学机械工程学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《弹道学报》2020年第2期42-49,共8页Journal of Ballistics

摘　　要：为降低武器弹药密集度试验的成本投入,得到密集度试验最优用弹数量,利用蒙特卡洛抽样模拟法,对一定弹药总发数在不同组数分组试验与不分组试验时的密集度进行了仿真研究。通过不同试验样本总量,按不同分组方式及不分组方式进行抽样模拟,得到了总体散布参数估计值的均值、方差和相对误差,以及分组试验时各组密集度中极大值和极小值之比的最大值、均值和方差。对比分组试验模拟结果与不分组试验模拟结果发现:试验弹药总发数一定时,分组数越多,密集度估算误差越大,密集度估计值的无偏性越差,不分组试验可略微提高密集度的估计精度,但改善并不明显。为了将气象等随机因素对密集度估计的影响计入考虑,密集度试验应分组进行。In order to reduce the cost of ammunition dispersion test and obtain the optimal number of bombs for dispersion test,the dispersion of the total number of certain ammunition in different grouping methods of grouping test and non-grouping test was simulated and calculated by Monte-Carlo method.The different test samples were simulated by different grouping methods and non-grouping methods.The average,variance and relative error of the estimated values of the overall dispersion were obtained,as well as the maximum,average and variance of the ratio of the maximum value to the minimum value in the dispersion of each group during the grouping test.The simulation results of group test were compared with those of the non-group test.The result shows that when the total number of test ammunition is fixed,the more the number of grouping,the larger the error of estimated dispersion,the worse the unbiasedness of the estimated value of dispersion,and the test without grouping can slightly improve the accuracy of the estimated dispersion,but the improvement is not obvious.In order to take into account the impact of random factors such as meteorology on the estimated dispersion,the dispersion test should be conducted in groups.

关 键 词：弹药 密集度试验 数理统计学 蒙特卡洛方法 计算机仿真 

分 类 号：TJ012.3[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]