两岸经贸评估对台湾选民投票抉择的影响:2008-2016年台湾地区“大选”观察  

The Impact of the Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Assessment on Taiwan Voters’ Voting Choice--Based on the Analysis of the “General Elections” in Taiwan from 2008 to 2016

作　　者：杨光 Yang Guang

机构地区：[1]台湾政治大学政治学系,中国台湾台北11605

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2020年第3期20-28,共9页Taiwan Research Journal

摘　　要：台湾经济与两岸贸易关系紧密,故讨论台湾选民投票行为的经济因素,应考量两岸经贸交流。本文分析2008-2016年三次台湾地区领导人选举,发现选民的两岸经贸评估均对其投票抉择产生显著影响,相较于中性认知者,肯定两岸经贸之经济效益者倾向投票给国民党候选人,否定者倾向支持民进党。通过比较两岸经贸评估在三次选举中的差异,发现其影响力基本维持稳定,从侧面证实两岸经贸议题在台湾"大选"中的关键性地位。同时,两岸经贸评估对投票抉择的影响受到政党认同制约,就无政党认同选民而言,对两岸经贸的利弊判断足以转变其投票选择。Due to the close ties between Taiwan economic development and the cross-Strait economic exchanges,we should take into consideration the economic and trade exchanges between the two sides in discussing the economic factors of voters'voting behavior in Taiwan.This article makes a detailed analysis of the three elections of Taiwan leaders from 2008 to 2016,and finds that the economic and trade evaluation of both sides of the Strait has a significant impact on their voting choices.As for those voters with neutral cognition,we have also found that those who affirm the economic benefits of the cross-Strait economy and trade tend to vote for KMT candidates,while those who deny them are inclined to support DPP.By com-paring the differences in the past three elections,we learn that the influence of the cross-Strait economic and trade evaluation is basically stable,which confirms the key position of the cross-Strait economic and trade issue in the“general election”in Taiwan.At the same time,the influence of the evaluation on the voting choice is restricted by the identification of political parties.

关 键 词：两岸经贸 台湾地区“大选” 投票抉择 政党认同 海峡两岸经济合作框架协议 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]