连香树在东南亚潜在分布区预测与分析  

Simulation and analysis of the potential distribution area of Cercidiphyllum japonicum in Southeast Asia

作　　者：徐思远[1] 李斌成 田浩园 李雪萍[4] 杜超群[2] Xu Siyuan;Li Bincheng;Tian Haoyuan;Li Xueping;Du Chaoqun(College of Horticulture and Gardening,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,China;Hubei academy of forestry sciences,Wuhan 430075,China;Institute of Crop Science,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;College of forestry,Henan university of science and technology,Luoyang 471000,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学园艺园林学院,湖北荆州434023 [2]湖北省林业科学研究院,湖北武汉430075 [3]中国农业科学院作物科学研究所,北京100081 [4]河南科技大学林学院,河南洛阳471000

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期104-110,共7页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31600530)。

摘　　要：[目的]气候因子能够直接影响物种的分布。本文以珍稀濒危植物连香树为研究对象,预测在气候变化下其潜在适生区的分布范围及变化规律,为连香树种群保护和开发利用提供参考。[方法]基于19个生态气候因子,将Max-Ent预测模型和ArcGIS分析软件相结合,根据连香树386个有效种群分布数据,模拟预测连香树在末次盛冰期、当前和未来适宜分布区。[结果]ROC曲线下方面积AUC值为0.995,接近于1,说明MaxEnt预测模型的可靠性高。刀切法和气候贡献率结果表明,温度是限制连香树分布的主要因子。采用MaxEnt软件中的重分类工具,比较当前和其他时期(末次盛冰期、RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5)面积比、收缩/扩张程度,结果显示,末次盛冰期以来,连香树分布面积收缩了54.1%。未来,随着气候变化,连香树适生区分布面积逐渐减小(32.9%~66.1%)。[结论]连香树对生境的选择与温度相关,也体现出其对实际生境的择优行为,建议应建立相应保护区,减少人为破坏。模型预测结果初步明确了其适宜生境分布,对连香树保护区制定具有参考意义。[Objective]Climatic factors can directly affect the distribution of species.The study was designed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of rare and endangered species of Gypsophila under climate change,and to provide a reference for the protection,development and utilization of the species.[Methods]To test 19 eco-climatic factors of Gypsum chinensis,both MaxEnt prediction model and ArcGis analysis software were adopted to simulate and predict the suitable distribution areas of Gypsum chinensis in the last glacial period,current and future based on 386 valid population distribution data.[Results]The AUC value of the area under the ROC curve(AUC)test set was 0.995,indicating that the MaxEnt prediction model had high reliability.The results of Jackknife method and the contribution rate of climatie indicated that temperature was the main factor limiting the distribution of Cercidiphyllum.The re-classification tool in MaxEnt software was used to compare the area ratio and the degree of contraction/expansion between the current and other periods(last glacial period,RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5).The distribution area of the tree was shrunk by 54.1%in the last glacial period;in the future,with the climate change,the distribution area of the suitable area of Limonium sylvestris will gradually decrease by 32.9%~66.1%.[Conclusion]The selection of Cercidiphyllum japonicum for its habitat is related to temperature,and it also reflects its preference for actual habitat.Therefore,it is suggested that corresponding protection areas should be established to reduce man-made damage.The prediction results of the model preliminarily clarified its suitable habitat distribution,which is of reference significance for the establishment of Cercidiphyllum japonicum Reserve.

关 键 词：连香树 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 分布 

分 类 号：S220.1[农业科学—农业机械化工程]