地方政府债务如何挤出实体企业信贷融资?——来自中国工业企业的微观证据  

How does Local Government Debt Crowd out Entity Enterprises'Credit Financing?-Microeconomic Evidence from China's Industrial Firms

作　　者：马树才[1] 华夏[1] 韩云虹[1] Ma Shucai;Hua Xia;Han Yunhong(School of Economics,Liaoning University)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第5期3-13,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“地方政府财政风险监测与预警的统计研究”(19BTJ004)资助。

摘　　要：本文利用中国工业企业数据库数据,从微观层面实证研究地方政府债务对实体企业信贷融资的挤出效应,并利用多重中介模型,对地方政府债务挤出实体企业信贷融资的内在机制进行分析。研究发现,地方政府债务对实体企业信贷融资具有挤出效应,挤出效应具有显著的企业规模异质性和所有制异质性特征。政府干预与土地财政对挤出效应具有助推作用。公共投资和房地产投资是地方政府债务挤出实体企业信贷融资的两个重要路径,但更大程度上归因于地方政府债务融资本身的直接挤出效应。Local government debt risk prevention and defuse,deleveraging and financial services spanning the real economy are the main focuses of central economic work.The purpose of this study is to identify how local government debt influences entity enterprises'credit financing.Using firm-level data from the above-scale industrial firm dataset provided by the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper empirically tested the crowding-out effect of local government debt on entity enterprises'credit financing,as well as the boosting function of local government intervention and land finance from micro-level.Additionally,in order to analyse both scale and ownership heterogeneity,the paper divided all the entity enterprises in the dataset into four groups based on scale,namely large,middle,small,micro enterprises,and two groups based on ownership,namely state-owned and non-stateowned.In addition to analysis on the crowding-out effect and its heterogeneity,this article applied multiple mediator models to analyze this crowding-out effect mechanism further.The empirical results showed that due to the high dependence of local government debt financing on bank loans,its increasing debt scale continuously occupied credit resource,thus crowding out entity enterprises'credit financing.Further,the crowding-out effect presented statistical heterogeneity,which means the crowding-out effect on small and micro enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises is larger than that on large and state-owned enterprises.Moreover,this paper discovered that government intervention and dependence on land finance gave the crowding-out effect a boost,and this boosting function also presented heterogeneous characteristics.Lastly,this paper discussed the effect mechanism and discovered two crowding-out paths,namely the public investment led by local government's implicit debt and real estate investment.However,the main reason of the crowding-out effect is not the meditative effect of the two paths above,but the direct effect of the high dependence of local g

关 键 词：地方政府债务 信贷融资 挤出效应 异质性 多重中介效应 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F832