基于集对可拓耦合算法的尾矿库安全综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation on safety of tailings pond based on SPA-extension coupling algorithm

作　　者：柯丽华[1,2] 黄畅畅 李全明 李振涛[3] 叶义成[1,2] 张光权[1,2] 张莹 KE Lihua;HUANG Changchang;LI Quanming;LI Zhentao;YE Yicheng;ZHANG Guangquan;ZHANG Ying(School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430081 [3]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第6期80-86,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804600);2017年安全生产重特大事故防治关键技术科技项目(hubei-0002-2017AQ);湖北省中央引导地方科技发展专项项目(2019ZYYD060)。

摘　　要：针对尾矿库安全综合评价中“定性定量评价尾矿库安全等级”和“客观描述尾矿库安全状态变化趋势”的要求,采用集对分析方法和可拓理论,利用可拓距计算原理,建立尾矿库集对可拓耦合安全评价模型和尾矿库集对势的计算方法。利用RSCIE权重计算方法确定尾矿库评价指标的权重,将基于集对可拓耦合算法的尾矿库安全评价模型用于尾矿库各安全等级集对可拓联系度的分析中,并基于最大隶属度原则确定案例中的尾矿库为正常库,其集对可拓联系度为0.0406,安全状态的集对势为9.26。结果表明:该尾矿库的安全等级为正常库,且其安全状态发展趋势为弱同势,说明尾矿库的安全状况发展趋势为正常库的态势不强,且向不安全状态转变的可能非常大,应该加强该尾矿库的日常安全管理。这与实际情况相符合,有效验证了该评价模型的可行性和实用性。Aiming at the requirements of“the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the safety level and the objective description for the changing trend of safety state about the tailings pond”in the comprehensive evaluation on safety of the tailings pond,the set pair analysis(SPA)method and the extension theory were adopted to set up the SPA-extension coupling safety evaluation model and the calculation method of the set pair potential about tailings pond by using the extension distance calculation principle.The weight calculation method of RSCIE was used to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes of tailings pond,and the safety evaluation model of tailings pond based on SPA-extension coupling algorithm was applied to analyze the extension connection degree of each safety level set pair of tailings pond.The tailings pond in the case was determined as the normal pond based on the principle of maximum membership degree,its SPA-extension connection degree was 0.0406,and the set pair potential of safety state was 9.26.The results showed that the safety level of this tailings pond was the normal pond,and the developing trend of its safety state was weak same potential,reflecting that the development trend of the safety situation of this tailings pond to the normal pond was not strong,with very large possibility of converting to the unsafe state.So the daily safety management of this tailings pond should be strengthened.The analyzing results were in line with the actual situation,which effectively verified the feasibility and practicability of the evaluation model.

关 键 词：尾矿库 集对分析 可拓关联函数 粗糙集 条件信息熵 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]