中国人口负增长:现状、未来与特征  

Trends and Patterns of Negative Population Growth in China

作　　者：张现苓 翟振武[2] 陶涛[2,3] Zhang Xianling;Zhai Zhenwu;Tao Tao(School of Sociology and Psychology,Central University of Finance and Economics;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;Social Construction of Beijing,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学社会与心理学院 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [3]中国人民大学北京社会建设研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口研究》2020年第3期3-20,共18页Population Research

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“中国妇女队列生育水平及变动趋势研究”(18CRK011);国家社科基金专项项目“新时代中国特色人口学基本理论问题研究”(19VXK07)的支持。

摘　　要：数千年来中国人口几乎遵循着指数增长模式,间或穿插短期外生性的人口负增长。1990年代后中国人口内在自然增长率由正转负,负增长惯性开始积聚。2000~2010年,全国1/4的市级地区出现人口负增长,但主要是由人口迁移流动所致。2010年,全国8%的县级地区人口自然增长为负。预测中方案显示,中国人口将在2027年后进入负增长;劳动年龄人口负增长比总人口负增长更早、更快;21世纪上半叶老年人口仍将快速增加。负增长是人口发展到一定阶段必然出现的现象;人口负增长具有隐蔽性、过程性、长期性和复杂性,既是数量问题也是结构问题;人口负增长受生育、死亡和年龄结构的直接影响;人口老龄化与负增长之间可能存在相互强化。For thousands of years, the Chinese population has approximately been following exponential growth, with occasionally short-term exogenous decrease. In the 1990 s, the intrinsic rate of natural increase turned negative, indicating the accumulation of negative population growth momentum. One quarter of prefecture-level regions in China experienced negative population growth by 2010, as a result of population floating and migration. Population natural decrease was observed in 8% of county-level regions in China in 2010. According to the medium-variant population projection, China’s population growth would become negative after 2027. The negative growth of working-age population would be much earlier and more rapidly than that of total population in the first half of this century. The older population would grow rapidly during this period. Negative population growth is not only a matter of quantity, but also of structure, which is directly affected by fertility, mortality and age structure changes. The mutually reinforcing process might happen between negative population growth and ageing.

关 键 词：生育转变 人口负增长 人口预测 未来人口态势 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]