基于Z-number的城市燃气管道危险性评价方法  

Risk Assessment of Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Z-number

作　　者：刘克会[1] 胡玉生 邓楠 Liu Kehui;Hu Yusheng;Deng Nan(Beijing Institute of New Technology Application,Beijing 100094,China;Beijing Information Science & Technology University,Beijing 100092,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市新技术应用研究所,北京100094 [2]北京信息科技大学,北京100192

出　　处：《城市勘测》2020年第3期198-202,共5页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：国家重点研发计划基金项目(2017YFC0805006);北京市西城区优秀人才培养资助;国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFC0704800)。

摘　　要：燃气的易燃易爆性使得燃气管道成为城市运行中的重大危险源之一,因此,对城市燃气管道进行危险性评估具有非常重要的意义。危险性评价即管道安全风险发生可能性的评价。当前城市燃气管道定量评价数据支撑不足,评价方法在实际工作中应用较少;定性评价信息不全,评价可靠性低的现状,本文将Z-number方法运用到城市燃气管道的危险性评价中,综合考虑多重评估准则,提升定性评价的可靠度,提出了一种燃气管道危险性评价的新方法,并通过数值算例对该方法进行了有效性验证,为燃气管道安全和应急管理提供理论依据。Combustibility and explosibility of gas make the gas pipeline become a major hazard source in the city operation.Therefore,risk assessment of the urban gas pipeline has a very important significance.Considering many uncertain factors and incompletion of data and information in the process of gas pipeline operation,this paper uses the Z-numbermethod to make the risk assessment of urban gas pipeline.Then we propose a new method for gas pipeline risk assessment based on multiple risk assessment criterions.Finally,a numerical example verifies the effectiveness of this method.It could provide a theoretical basis for gas pipeline risk management and planning.

关 键 词：Z-number 城市燃气管道 危险性评价 评价矩阵 

分 类 号：TU996.9[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]