国际油价冲击对中国对外贸易影响的实证分析  

Empirical analysis on the impact of international oil price shocks on China's foreign trade

作　　者：叶阿忠 付玉 YE Azhong;FU Yu(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期36-45,共10页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71571046)。

摘　　要：为研究国际油价冲击和美国、日本等国家进出口贸易量的波动对中国进出口贸易的影响,选取与中国贸易往来较多的18个国家和地区,包括欧元区主要国家、金砖国家及东盟地区国家,构建全局向量自回归模型,借助脉冲响应函数,分析国际油价及他国进出口贸易量对中国国际贸易的影响方向和程度。研究认为,国际油价波动对中国进出口贸易额均有影响,油价上涨对中国进口产生一定程度的正向效应,对中国出口产生一定程度的负向效应;美国、日本进口增加会对中国进出口贸易产生显著的负效应,相反,美国、日本出口增加会对中国进出口贸易产生显著的正效应,并且两者都对中国进口贸易抑制作用显著;中国外贸对贸易伙伴国进出口贸易波动的反应比对油价波动的反应更加显著。因此,国际油价上涨在一定程度上会促进中国进口,阻碍中国出口;美国、日本两国进出口贸易对中国对外贸易影响显著,美国、日本进出口冲击均对中国进口贸易更具影响力,但是相较于美国、日本外贸冲击,国际油价对中国国际贸易影响较小。In order to study the impact of international oil price shocks and the fluctuations in the import and export trade volume of the United States and Japan on China's import and export trade,this paper selects 18 countries which have a large amount of trade exchange with China,including the major countries in the Eurozone,BRIC countries and the countries in the ASEAN region,constructs a global vector autoregressive model,and analyzes the direction and degree of the impact of the international oil prices and the import and export trade volume of other countries on China's international trade by way of the impulse response function.The results are as follows.(1)The fluctuations in international oil prices have an impact on China's import and export trade volume.The rise in oil prices has a certain degree of positive effect on China's import and a certain degree of negative effect on China's export.(2)Increased imports from the United States and Japan will have a significant negative effect on China's import and export trade;on the contrary,increased exports from the United States and Japan will have a significant positive effect on China's import and export trade,and both will have a more distinctive inhibitive effect on China's import trade.(3)The response of China's foreign trade to fluctuations in import and export trade of trading partner countries is more prominent than the response to fluctuations in oil prices.Therefore,it is concluded that the increase in international oil prices will promote China's import to a certain extent and hinder China's export.At the same time,the import and export trade between the United States and Japan has a significant impact on China's foreign trade,and the impact of the United States and Japan's import and export shocks on China's import trade is more evident.However,compared with the impact of the United States and Japan's foreign trade,international oil prices have a smaller impact on China's international trade.

关 键 词：中美贸易 中日贸易 国际油价 原油 能源物资 进出口贸易 全局向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.7[经济管理—产业经济]