地铁开通对城市空气质量的影响  

The Effect of Subway Openings on A City’s Air Quality

作　　者：王学渊[1] 李婧薇 赵连阁[1] Wang Xueyuan

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2020年第3期89-103,128,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章从城市人口规模与房地产及商业市场动态变化的现实条件出发,阐释地铁开通的交通替代和交通创造效应的作用机理,基于2014~2018年中国21个城市194个空气质量监测站点的日度数据,利用断点回归方法系统考察新开通地铁线路对城市空气质量的影响。研究结果发现,在交通替代效应与交通创造效应的综合作用下,地铁开通对空气质量的影响呈现出明显的城市异质性:(1)在常住人口规模为400万~700万的城市,交通替代效应大于交通创造效应,地铁开通提升了空气质量;(2)当城市常住人口规模在700万~900万之间时,交通替代效应可能被交通创造效应抵消,地铁开通并未明显改善空气质量;(3)在常住人口规模大于900万的城市,交通创造效应超过交通替代效应,空气质量在地铁开通之后不升反降。因此,对于交通需求不断增加的特大型和超大型城市来说,推进城市公共交通枢纽周边的职住平衡,实施污染型交通方式的绿色化升级,激励居民的绿色出行,是治理交通污染的根本性举措。The paper explains the mechanism of substitution effect and creation effect of subway openings on traffic demands,and examines the impact of subway on local air quality with a regression-discontinuity framework by using 194 daily air quality monitoring data in 21 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2018.The results show heterogeneous impacts of subway among cities with different population sizes under the combined effects of traffic demands substitution and creation.(1)In cities with residents of 4 million to 7 million,substitution effect is greater than creation effect,and the opening of subway significantly improves local air quality.(2)In cities with residents of 7 million to 9 million,creation effect of traffic demands offsets substitution effect,and the subway opening has no impact on air quality.(3)In cities with residents more than 9 million,traffic demands substitution effect is lower than creation effect,and local air quality drops,rather than improves,after the subway is opened.The environmental benefits of subway were overestimated in many studies which have paid little attention to the creation effect of traffic demands.We should promote the work-living balance around urban public transportation hubs,change polluting transportation to green transportation,and inspire residents’demands for green transportation modes to control traffic pollution from the roots,especially in China’s ultra-large cities and mega-cities with increasing population and traffic demands.

关 键 词：地铁 空气质量 交通替代 交通创造 断点回归 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]