Weibull型无故障数据下综合Bayes置信可靠性评估模型  

INTEGRATED BAYESIAN CONFIDENCE RELIABILITY EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON WEIBULL TYPE ZERO-FAILURE DATA

作　　者：何婺晖 唐家银 HE WuHui;TANG JiaYin(Department of Statistics,College of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学数学学院统计系,成都611756

出　　处：《机械强度》2020年第3期610-616,共7页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划项目(2017J003-H);四川省统计科学研究计划项目(2016sc50);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2682017ZDPY13)资助。

摘　　要：在无故障数据情况下,将失效概率结合Bayes理论引入置信限,分析了修正后的数据Weibull分布中单侧置信可靠性。其方法是:首先基于Weibull分布采用配分布曲线法进行分析,构造出多层先验分布给出失效概率的综合EBayes估计,结合最小二乘法拟合得到分布参数的估计值;根据参数的统计性质构造置信区间的枢轴量,同时,给出Weibull分布特征参数的区间估计和可靠度置信下限。以经典轴承试验为例,将此方法与其它方法计算结果进行对比,证明了该方法对置信可靠性评估的合理性和可行性。In the case of no-fault data,the failure probability combined with the Bayesian theory to study the confidence limit analysis to correct the unilateral confidence reliability evaluation.Based on the Weibull distribution,the distribution curve method was adopted to analyze,and the hierarchical priors distribution was constructed to give the comprehensive E-Bayes estimation of the failure probability,and the estimated value of distribution parameters were obtained by combining the least square method.According to the statistical property of the parameters,the pivot quantity of the confidence interval is constructed,and the interval estimation and reliability confidence lower limit of the Weibull distribution characteristic parameters are given.Taking the classical bearing test as an example,this method was compared with the calculation results of other methods,which proves the rationality and feasibility of this method in evaluating confidence reliability.

关 键 词：无故障数据 失效概率 多层E-Bayes估计 配分布曲线法 置信区间估计 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] O213.2[理学—数学]