环中国南海周边国家及地区地缘经贸关系动态演化探析  

Evolution of geo-economic and trade relations among the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea

作　　者：贺良辉 薛德升[1,2] HE Lianghui;XUE Desheng(Center for Urban Regional Studies,School of Geography and Urban Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519080,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院城市与区域研究中心,广州510275 [2]中山大学南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东珠海519080

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2020年第3期469-479,共11页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)交流与合作研究项目(41320104001);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)海洋人文地理广东省实验室分本项目(99147-42080011)。

摘　　要：基于1996~2016年联合国商品贸易数据库进出口贸易额,采用社会网络分析法和位序变动指数法,对环中国南海周边国家及地区的经贸网络关系展开时空演化的实证研究。结果表明:1)环中国南海周边国家及地区的整体经贸网络格局演化呈日益紧密的趋势,形成了以中国大陆和中国香港为核心,泰国、马来西亚、新加坡和印度尼西亚为次核心,澳门、越南、柬埔寨、文莱和菲律宾为边缘地带的相对稳定的网络结构特征;2)在整个网络的动态发展过程中,网络影响力高的中国大陆和中国香港、网络影响力低的文莱、柬埔寨和中国澳门在进出口网络中都具有很大程度的网络结构对等性,其他国家和地区的结构数值动态波动,在进、出口网络中扮演的角色差异明显,且不断产生新的结构对等性配对;3)自1996年以来环中国南海周边国家及地区的经贸互动规模和经贸总量持续增长,但中国大陆的进出口贸易重心已由中国香港和新加坡逐渐转向以越南、泰国和马来西亚等国为代表的新兴市场国家。地缘经贸关系整体空间呈现出以中国大陆和中国香港为中心,核心、次核心及边缘地带内部力量动态演化的网络结构,且中国大陆在进出口方面都显示出对其他国家和地区极其重要的影响力。Based on the import and export trade volume of the UN Comtrade Database in 1996,2001,2006,2011 and 2016,the social network analysis method and the bit sequence change index are used to carry out an empirical study on the spatio-temporal evolution of the geo-economic and trade network relations among the countries and regions around the South China Sea.The results show:First,the overall economic and trade network pattern of the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea is becoming closer evolving,and the trade between countries and regions has already been realized,forming a core of China's Mainland and Hong Kong,with Thailand,Malaysia,Singapore and Indonesia at the sub-core,Macao,Vietnam,Cambodia,Brunei and the Philippines are the relatively stable network structure characteristics of the fringe zone;Second,in the dynamic development of the whole network,different countries and regions play different roles in the import and export networks.structural equivalence in the import and export network is reflected in the high influence of the China's Mainland and Hong Kong,as well as the low influence of Brunei,Cambodia and the Macao.The high influence of the China's Mainland and Hong Kong,the low influence of Brunei,Cambodia and the Macao region in the import and export network to maintain a large degree of structural equivalence while the structural values of other countries are dynamic fluctuations,in the import and export network continue to produce new structural equivalence pairing;Third,since 1996,the scale of economic and trade interaction and the total economic and trade volume of the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea have continued to increase,which is considerable,but the focus of import and export trade in China's Mainland has shifted from Hong Kong and Singapore to emerging developing countries around the South China Sea,represented by countries such as Vietnam,Thailand and Malaysia.The overall space of geo-economic relations presents a relatively static center centered on Ch

关 键 词：南海周边国家及地区 中国大陆 社会网络分析 经贸关系 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]