房产税的生育抑制效应——基于改善性需求的视角  

The Depression Effect of Property Tax on Fertility:From the View of Condition-Improving Demand

作　　者：孔培嘉 刘金东[1] 秦子洋 KONG Pei-jia;LIU Jin-dong;QIN Zi-yang(Department of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;Public Economy and Public Policy Research Center,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东大学公共经济与公共政策研究中心,山东济南250100

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2020年第6期17-31,共15页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(14BJY096);教育部人文社科青年基金(19YJC790081)。

摘　　要：以2011年重庆、上海房产税试点作为一次准自然实验,利用CFPS家庭微观数据首次实证分析房产税对家庭生育行为的影响。基于双重差分、三重差分等方法的实证研究发现:房产税扩围改革显著抑制了上海地区城镇家庭生育率,重庆地区由于主要针对高档住宅试点征收,受到的生育抑制效应并不明显;房产税主要通过阻碍家庭改善性需求进而抑制家庭生育意愿,背后更深刻的根源在于国内住房私人品属性和准公共品属性的二元割裂;房产税的生育抑制效应表现出持续性特征,并且随着时间的演进,有进一步加剧的趋势;随着未来房产税扩容到全国,房产税生育抑制效应的作用渠道可能会改变,但生育抑制效应仍将广泛存在。上述结论意味着,房产税改革的推进有可能对当前鼓励生育产生不利影响,未来房产税的试点扩容和方案设计必须要兼顾生育政策因素。This paper takes the property tax pilot in Shanghai and Chongqing in 2011 as a quasinatural experiment,and analyzes the effects of property tax on family fertility behavior by using CFPS family micro data for the first time.Empirical study based on DID and DDD method finds that:(1)Property tax reform significantly inhibits the fertility rate of urban households in Shanghai rather than Chongqing pilot area as the latter’s program mainly aims at high-grade residences.(2)The property tax mainly aims to curb the family’s fertility will by hindering the family’s improvement of sexual needs.The deeper root cause lies in the dual separation of the domestic private property attributes and the quasi-public goods attributes.(3)The depression effect shows persistent characteristics and increases over time.(4)Its functioning path may change in the future when the new property tax is launched nationwide,however,the depression effect will be a long and global thing.The conclusion comes to us that the property tax reform may have an adverse effect on encouraging birth in recent years.To cope with this dilemma,we must take into account both the property tax reform-designing and the fertility policy-making.

关 键 词：房产税 生育率 改善性需求 生育抑制效应 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]