一次冰雹过程的对流单体识别与防雹效果分析  

Identification of convection cells and the effect of hail suppression during a hail event

作　　者：刘昭武 田世芹 王凤娇 龚佃利[2] LIU Zhao-wu;TIAN Shi-qin;WANG Feng-jiao;GONG Dian-li(Binzhou Meteorological Service,Binzhou 256612,China;Shandong Weather Modification Office,Ji′nan 250031,China)

机构地区：[1]滨州市气象局,山东滨州256612 [2]山东省人民政府人工影响天气办公室,山东济南250031

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2020年第3期10-16,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目 (2018YFC150790X)资助。

摘　　要：利用2018年6月12—13日山东鲁西北地区一次冰雹过程的常规气象资料,分析了冰雹形成的天气形势和物理量指标条件以及防雹效果。结果表明:人工防雹作业前后雷达回波指标呈明显的下降趋势,其中VIL值、回波顶高指标变化分别平均下降49.9%、37.4%,冰雹概率由作业前99.3%下降到作业后的28.7%,回波强度、回波顶高、VIL值下降最大值分别为10 dBz、7 km、48 kg·m-2。通过对比分析两个相似对流单体的发展演变,实施防雹作业的对流单体回波强度下降7 dBz、回波顶高下降3 km、VIL值下降11 kg·m-2、冰雹概率出现剧烈波动,防雹作业后较作业前回波强度、回波顶高、冰雹概率下降速度明显加快,而没有实施防雹作业的对流单体雷达回波综合指标在编号期间变化幅度小,进一步证实了人工防雹作业有效。Based on conventional meteorological data during a hail event in the northwestern Shandong province from June 12 to 13,2018,we analyzed the synoptic situation and physical quantity conditions for the hail formation.The results indicated that the radar echo index has an obviously decreasing trend before and after the operation of artificial hail suppression.The values of liquid water path(LWP)and echo top height index decrease by 49.9%and 37.4%,respectively.Hail probability drops from 99.3%to 28.7%after the hail suppression operation.The echo intensity,echo top height,and LWP values decrease by 10 dBz,7 km,and 48 kg·m-2 at most,respectively.In a comparison of the development and evolution of two similar convection cells,the hail suppression operation makes echo intensity,echo top height,and LWP value of one convection cell decrease by 7 dBz,3 km,and 11 kg·m-2,respectively,and then results in a large fluctuation in hail probability.The echo intensity and top height become higher and hail probability drops more quickly after the hail suppression.While the other convection cell without the effect of hail suppression has smaller fluctuation in radar echo indexes during the numbering period of convective cells,which further proves the positive effect of the artificial hail suppression.

关 键 词：人工防雹 对流单体 防雹效果 

分 类 号：P482[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]