唐山市农业洪涝灾害面积与暴雨关系分析  

Relationship between the area suffered agricultural flood disaster and rainstorm in Tangshan

作　　者：王猛[1] 高桂芹[1] 王爱军[1] 张莉[1] 万绪江[2] 袁雷武 WANG Meng;GAO Gui-qin;WANG Ai-jun;ZHANG li;WAN Xu-jiang;YUAN Lei-wu(Tangshan Meteorological Service,Tangshan,063000,China;Liaoning WeatherModification Office,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]唐山市气象局,河北唐山063000 [2]辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2020年第3期93-97,共5页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：河北省科技厅创新能力提升计划项目“谈天说地—农业气象科普视频集”(19K55406D);河北省气象局科研开发项目“迁西板栗气象干旱保险指数”(17ky16)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用唐山市统计局1985—2014年各县逐年播种面积和农业洪涝受灾面积数据资料、唐山地区11个县市气象站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析、多项式统计回归等方法,对唐山地区农业洪涝灾害时空特征及与暴雨的关系进行分析。结果表明:唐山洪灾面积总体呈微弱的下降趋势,但不显著,与年暴雨日数变化趋势一致。各县域的洪灾以轻到中度为主,占洪灾的80%—100%。唐山地区洪灾与年暴雨量有关(R=0.78),但不显著,受灾面积与年暴雨日数显著相关(R=0.83,P<0.01)。中等以上洪灾年的暴雨平均暴雨日数为4—6 d、80%县站大暴雨日数为0.7—1.5 d、60%暴雨累积量在300 mm以上。区域种植结构、地形地势、水系河流分布等因素也是导致洪灾的一个重要方面。Using data of the annual planting area and the area suffered agricultural flood of each county from 1985 to 2014 provided by Tangshan Statistical Bureau,as well as daily precipitation data from 11 meteorological stations in Tangshan,the trend analysis and polynomial statistical regression were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural flood disasters in Tangshan and their relationships with rainstorm.The results show that the area suffered flood disaster in Tangshan has a slight downward trend,though it cannot pass the significant test,which is consistent with the changing trend of the number of annual rainstorm days.The degrees of flood disasters in each county are mainly mild to moderate,accounting for 80%to 100%of the total number of flood disasters.The occurrence of flood disaster in Tangshan is related to the annual rainstorm(R=0.78),though it cannot pass the significant test.The area of disaster is significantly correlated with the number of annual rainstorm days(R=0.83,P<0.01).Rainstorms in years with above medium level flood disaster have the following characteristics:average rainstorm days are 4-6 days,the number of heavy rainstorm days of 80%county stations is 0.7-1.5 days,and accumulated amount of 60%of rainstorm is more than 300 mm.In addition,factors such as regional planting structure,topography and water system distribution are also important aspects causing the occurrence of flood disasters.

关 键 词：农业洪涝灾害 暴雨日数 暴雨累积量 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护]