重要节假日期间重庆高速公路交通出行特征与预测分析  

Characteristics and Forecast Analysis of Chongqing Highway Transportation During Important Holidays

作　　者：郭良久 王新渝 章玉 GUO Liangjiu;WANG Xinyu;ZHANG Yu(Chongqing Shipping Exchange Institute,Chongqing 400025;Chongqing Traffic Operation Monitoring and Emergency Dispatching Center,Chongqing 401120;Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Integrated Traffic Big Data Application Technology,Chongqing 401121)

机构地区：[1]重庆航运交易所,重庆400025 [2]重庆市交通运行监测与应急调度中心,重庆401120 [3]综合交通大数据应用技术重庆市工程研究中心,重庆401121

出　　处：《公路交通技术》2020年第3期116-120,共5页Technology of Highway and Transport

摘　　要：为掌握重要节假日期间高速公路对外交通出行特征,利用历年高速公路收费数据,研究了五一、国庆、春运等重要节假日期间高速公路交通运行的特征规律,采用指数平滑法对春运期间高速公路的出行总量进行了预测。研究表明不同节假日期间高速公路出行差异较大、节前第1天和节前当天为出行高峰,春运期间高速公路出行总量趋于平稳、旅客逐渐选择错峰出行。In order to know well the characteristics of expressway external traffic during the important holidays,the paper studies the characteristic laws of expressway traffic during the important holidays such as May Day,National Day and Spring Festival by the data of expressway charges over the years,and forecasts the total amount of expressway travel during the Spring Festival by the exponential smoothing method.The results show that there are great differences in highway travel during different holidays.The first day of the holidays and the day before the holidays are the peak travel times.During the Spring Festival,the total number of highway travel tends to be stable,and passengers gradually choose to travel on the wrong peak.

关 键 词：高速公路 重要节假日 交通运行 出行特征 预测分析 

分 类 号：U491.26[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]