非常时期的中国天然气市场  

The traits of China’s natural gas market amid special period

作　　者：战永辉[1] 杨建红 方博涛 ZHAN Yonghui;YANG Jianhong;FANG Botao(Sinopec Natural Gas Branch;BSC Energy Consulting;North China Natural Gas Sales Center,Sinopec Natural Gas Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国石化天然气分公司 [2]北京世创能源咨询有限公司 [3]中国石化天然气分公司华北天然气销售中心

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第6期66-74,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2020年,中国天然气市场进入非常时期。受新冠疫情等因素影响,上半年中国天然气消费增幅创近几年新低,同比增长1.2%,远低于前3年10%以上的增幅。随着全国全面复产复工,天然气消费增速短期内由负转正,表现良好。预计,2020年中国天然气需求量为3090亿~3100亿立方米,同比增加108亿~118亿立方米,增幅为3.6%~3.9%,其中下半年同比增幅为6%~6.6%。与前几年相比,非常时期中国天然气市场发展呈现新特点,主要表现在:天然气市场发展具有周期性,目前中国天然气市场进入了调整期;但天然气市场长期成长性未变;天然气市场表现出较强的韧性;天然气产业链越来越有弹性;天然气下游利用选择性日益灵活;影响天然气市场发展的不确定性加剧。为了推动中国天然气市场健康快速发展,建议进一步提升天然气产业链弹性,提升响应能力;抓住低气价的大好机遇,合理优化资源配置;科学引导天然气消费,提升天然气的综合竞争力;利用好市场化工具,发挥价格的杠杆作用和核心作用。In 2020,China natural gas market enters into special.Due to Covid-19 and other factors,the growth rate of natural gas consumption in China in the first half of the year hit a new low in recent years,with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%,much lower than the growth rate of more than 10%in the previous three years.Along with work resumption in the country,the growth rate of natural gas consumption has changed from the negative to the positive in the short term and is showing a good performance.It is estimated that China’s demand for natural gas in 2020 will be 309-310 billion cubic meters,with a year-onyear increase of 10.8-11.8 billion cubic meters,namely an increase of 3.6%-3.9%,among which the year-on-year increase in the second half of the year will be 6%-6.6%.Compared to previous years,the development of natural gas market during this period mainly features as follow,China’s natural gas market has entered a period of adjustment;the long-term growth of the natural gas market remains unchanged since natural gas market would develop periodically;natural gas market has proved resilient and gas industry is becoming more resilient;the downstream use of natural gas has become increasingly flexible and uncertainty that affects natural gas market development intensifies.In order to promote the healthy and rapid development of China’s natural gas market,it is suggested to further enhance the resilience of the natural gas industry chain and enhance the response capacity,seize the good opportunity of low gas price and rationally optimize resource allocation,guide the consumption of natural gas scientifically and enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of natural gas,make good use of market tools to leverage and play the core role of prices.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 中国天然气市场 供需 周期性 资源配置 市场化 2020年 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]