2019年全球液化天然气市场回顾与展望  

2019 global LNG market review and outlook

作　　者：孙文 SUN Wen(Southwest Petroleum University;Zhejiang Energy Gas Group Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学 [2]浙江能源天然气集团有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第6期83-94,共12页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：四川石油天然气发展研究中心2019年度教育厅课题《健全天然气多元化海外供应体系研究》资助,课题编号:川油气科SKB19-01。

摘　　要：2019年,全球LNG贸易量再上历史新台阶,贸易地区性特点突出。全球LNG液化供应能力继续增加,澳大利亚、美国和俄罗斯继续成为主要增长动力。欧洲地区成为全球LNG市场供需的平衡力量,进口增量显著。中国和印度为代表的新兴进口市场增速放缓,日本和韩国为代表的传统进口市场有所下降,全球LNG供需继续保持宽松态势。受此影响,全球各主要市场LNG价格纷纷跌入低谷。全球化的LNG市场加速形成,贸易结构也在快速变化,现货和短期贸易仍然旺盛,贸易合同继续维持"长"和"大"的特点,合同挂钩方式也越来越多样化。未来,全球创纪录的新增液化项目将使LNG供应充足,新冠肺炎疫情对全球LNG需求造成巨大冲击,全球天然气价格在供需宽松的市场情况下将继续保持历史低位。In 2019,the global LNG trade volume reached a new historical level with prominent regional characteristics.Global LNG liquefaction supply capacity continues to increase and Australia,the US,and Russia keep the key drivers of growth.European region has become a balance between supply and demand in the global LNG market with significant increase in imports.The growth of emerging import markets represented by China and India slowed down while the traditional import markets represented by Japan and South Korea declined,and global LNG supply and demand remained loose.As a result,LNG prices in major markets around the world have fallen to the lowest levels.Under the rapid forming of global LNG market and quick changes of trade structure,spot and short-term trade is still keeping vigorous,trade contracts continue to maintain the characteristics of“long”and“big”,and contract price formula is becoming more diversified.In the future,the world’s record number of new LNG projects will lead to sufficient LNG supply.The Covid-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on global LNG demand and global natural gas prices will continue to remain at historic lows in a market with loose supply and demand.

关 键 词：液化天然气(LNG) LNG贸易 LNG出口 LNG进口 LNG价格 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]