突发性地震发生后道路恢复重建成本预测算法研究  

Research on Cost Prediction Algorithm of Road Restoration and Reconstruction and Sudden Earthquake

作　　者：赵钢[1] 吴振刚[2] ZHAO Gang;WU Zhengang(Xi’an Aeronautical Polytechnic Institute,Xi’an 710089,China;Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西安航空职业技术学院,陕西西安710089 [2]西北大学,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第3期38-41,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划(青年人才计划)项目(2016JQ1041);陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划(青年项目)(2018JQ1093)。

摘　　要：由于目前突发性地震发生后道路恢复重建预测算法的预测响应性较差,导致其预测结果与目标存在差距较大,因此该文提出突发性地震后道路恢复重建成本预测算法。通过构建突发性地震后道路恢复重建成本预测体系,分析重建成本影响因素,制定恢复重建成本指标,得到道路重建评价因子,评价突发性地震后道路损坏程度,从而得到投入绩效成本预测。Due to the poor prediction response of the road reconstruction prediction algorithm after the occurrence of the sudden earthquake,there is a big gap between the prediction result and the target.Therefore,the road reconstruction cost prediction algorithm after the sudden earthquake is proposed.Through the construction of road reconstruction cost prediction system after the sudden earthquake,the influencing factors of reconstruction cost are analyzed,the recovery and reconstruction cost index is established,the evaluation factors of road reconstruction are obtained,the degree of road damage after the sudden earthquake is evaluated,and the prediction of input performance cost is obtained.The simulation results show that comparing the design algorithm with the current DP tree based cost prediction algorithm,the design algorithm has a high response performance in cost prediction,which proves the effectiveness of the design algorithm.

关 键 词：地震 道路 重建 成本预测 

分 类 号：U415[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] P315[天文地球—地震学]