近58年来中国负积温时空演变特征  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Negative Accumulated temperature in China in Recent 58 Years

作　　者：孔锋 KONG Feng(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学应急管理研究基地,北京100084

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第3期96-101,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510202,2018YFC1509003);北京市社科基金研究基地项目(19JDGLA008);国家自然科学基金项目(41801064,41775078,41701103);中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019T120114,2019M650756)。

摘　　要：基于1961-2018年中国545个气象站点数据,采用多种数理统计方法,从气候态特征、年代距平、变化趋势和波动特征角度,诊断中国负积温的时空演变特征,并对1990年前后负积温的变化进行了对比分析。结果表明:①1961-2018年中国年均负积温具有纬向和垂直地带性规律,其随纬度和海拔的增加而增大。中国多数地区的负积温在1991-2018年相比1961-1990年偏少。②在年代距平上,1960和1970年代的中国负积温以负距平为主,1980和1990年代是负积温的快速变化期,2000和2010年代的负积温则以正距平为主。中国负积温的年代距平演变特征表明负积温在减少,这与中国气候变暖相一致。③1961-2018年中国负积温绝对数量随着纬度和海拔的增加而增加。其中华南南部和云南南部地区的负积温绝对数量增加趋势较大,而青藏高原、内蒙古中部和东北地区负积温绝对数量减少趋势较大。1990年前后青藏高原负积温绝对数量趋势减小,东北、内蒙古、新疆等地则趋势增大。④1961-2018年中国负积温在华南南部沿海地区和云南西南等地波动最小,在华南南部以北至黄河中下游以南之间地区波动最大。1990年前后波动差异变化较大的地区主要集中在青海、新疆和西藏相邻地区、四川中部和东部、华南南部沿海地区以北至长江以南地区。Based on the data of 545 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2018,using a variety of mathematical statistics methods,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of negative accumulated temperature in China are diagnosed from the perspective of climate state characteristics,decadal anomaly,change trend and fluctuation characteristics,and the changes of negative accumulated temperature before and after 1990 are compared and analyzed.The results showed that:Firstly,the annual mean negative accumulated temperature in China had latitudinal direction and vertical direction regularity from 1961 to 2018,which increased with the increasing of latitude and altitude.The negative accumulated temperature in most regions of China is less in 1991-2018 than in 1961-1990.Secondly,in terms of chronological anomaly,the negative accumulated temperature in China in 1960s and 1970s are mainly negative anomaly,the rapid change period of negative accumulated temperature were in 1980s and 1990s,and the negative accumulated temperature in 2000s and 2010s are mainly positive anomaly.The decadal evolution of negative accumulated temperature in China showed that the negative accumulated temperature was decreasing,which was consistent with the climate warming in China.Thirdly,the absolute number of negative accumulated temperature in China increased with the increasing of latitude and altitude from 1961 to 2018.The absolute number of negative accumulated temperature increased significantly in the south of South China and the south of Yunnan,while in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the Central and Northeast of Inner Mongolia,the absolute number of negative accumulated temperature decreased significantly.The absolute quantity trend of negative accumulated temperature in Qinghai Tibet Plateau decreased before and after 1990,while that in Northeast China,Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang increased.(4)The negative accumulated temperature of China fluctuated the lowest in the southern coastal area of South China and southwestern of Yunnan,and

关 键 词：负积温 时空格局 时相差异 气候变化 变化趋势 波动特征 区域差异 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S161[农业科学—农业气象学]