基于系统动力学的我国住房需求仿真研究  

A Simulation Study of the Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：牟新娣 李秀婷 董纪昌 董志 Mou Xindi;Li Xiuting;Dong Jichang;Dong Zhi(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science&Technology University,Beijing 100192;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2020年第6期16-28,共13页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71403260,71573244,71532013,71850014);中国科学院青年创新促进会优秀会员经费资助;北京共建项目专项资助。

摘　　要：近年来我国住房需求波动加剧,对房地产市场产生了巨大影响。本文综合分析了影响我国住房需求的因素,并基于系统动力学方法,构建了我国住房需求的系统模型,拟探究未来我国住房需求的发展趋势,同时设定不同情景进行仿真模拟,拟为我国住房市场平稳发展提供建议。研究结果发现,我国住房需求呈现倒U型的发展趋势,未来住房需求将出现下降趋势。通过情景仿真模拟发现,征收房地产税、取消预售权均会对我国住房需求起到有效控制作用,而全面放开计划生育政策能够在增加我国人口总量的基础上,抑制未来我国住房需求的下降趋势。In recent years,the fluctuation of housing demand in China has intensified,which has had a tremendous impact on the real estate market.This paper comprehensively analyses the factors affecting the housing demand in China.Based on the system dynamics,this paper constructs a system model of housing demand in China to explore the development trend of housing demand in China,and then sets up different scenarios for simulation in order to provide suggestions for the stable development of housing demand in China.The results show that China’s housing demand presents an inverted U-shaped development trend,and the housing demand will show a downward trend in the future.Through scenario simulation,this paper finds that the imposition of real estate tax and the abolition of pre-sale right will effectively control the housing demand in China,and the comprehensive relaxing of family planning policy can inhibit the declining trend of housing demand in the future on the basis of increasing the total population of China.

关 键 词：住房需求 系统动力学 仿真模拟 政策分析 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]