农业干旱灾害风险研究进展及前景分析  

Research progress of agriculture drought disaster risk and prospect

作　　者：韩兰英 张强[2] 程英 陈佩璇 HAN Lanying;ZHANG Qiang;CHENG Ying;CHENG Peixuan(Lanzhou Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,China;Meteorology Bureau of Gansu,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou Center Meteorology Observatory,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州区域气候中心,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省气象局,兰州730000 [3]兰州中心气象台,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2020年第6期97-102,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41605090,41630426);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430206);甘肃省自然基金青年科技基金计划(1208RJYA027);干旱基金(IAM201509)共同资助。

摘　　要：我国是干旱灾害最频发和损失最严重的地区之一,干旱灾害严重威胁我国的粮食安全。随着气候变化的影响,我国农业干旱风险特征和管理问题尤为突出,我国作为主要粮食作物生产基地,其干旱灾害风险对农作物产量影响及其致灾机制有待进一步研究。鉴于此,文中在总结分析国内外干旱灾害风险研究进展的基础上,围绕农作物干旱致灾阈值及风险影响机制问题,试图提出利用气象观测、长序列作物产量、干旱灾害实况资料和遥感等多种资料集成,采用遥感反演、野外调查、数理统计和建模相结合的风险评估理论和技术框架,通过对比分析干旱指数的适应性,识别干旱监测指标,建立农业干旱致灾因子与灾害损失的定量关系,筛选出主要的致灾指标和技术体系,确定不同等级农业干旱致灾阈值和等级,综合干旱灾害风险因子耦合模拟的理论,建立精细化动态的农作物干旱灾害风险评估模型,构建一套适合农业干旱灾害风险评估的详细理论和技术框架。并开展其研究进展分析和未来发展前景分析的思考。研究成果可为提升风险管理水平提供理论和科技支撑。Northwestern China is one of the regions with high frequency drought disaster and the serious loses,and the drought disaster threats seriously the local food safety.This article focused on the agricultural drought disaster risk characteristics and affected mechanism,compared the adaptability of the drought monitoring index,identified the drought disaster hazard index.Based on the long term drought disaster and production data,the occurring drought samples in the growth period were selected and reduction rate was calculated,the relationship between production and drought disaster index was built.Based on the reduction rate,the hazard index critical value was quantified and graded,the contribution degree of the drought in different growth period to production was quantified.Based on the theory of coupled risk simulation,the drought disaster dynamic risk assessment model was built,the drought disaster hazard factor and its critical values,the characteristics of dynamic risk,and change rule in the rain-fed agriculture region were described,the resist capability to drought in different growth period was analyzed,the risk key period was found.

关 键 词：农作物 干旱灾害风险 阈值 动态评估 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]