人民币汇率升值对海洋产业的非对称效应研究  

The Asymmetric Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation on Marine Industry

作　　者：李宁[1] LI Ning(South China Sea Institute of Planning and Environmental Research,SOA,Guangzhou 510300,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海规划与环境研究院,广州510300

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2020年第6期70-75,共6页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：中国海洋发展研究会基金课题项目“重点海洋产业‘走出去’问题和政策研究”(CAMAJJ201902);广东省促进经济高质量发展专项资金项目“广东推动粤港澳大湾区海洋经济高质量发展路径研究”(粤自然资源合[2020]060).

摘　　要：文章基于协整分析方法,研究人民币汇率升值对我国海洋产业产生的影响,结果表明:人民币汇率升值会对海洋第一产业产生负向效应,而对海洋第二、第三产业的影响则不显著。选择海洋渔业、海洋旅游业等七大海洋产业,利用VAR模型分析人民币汇率升值对各个海洋产业产生的非对称效应。总体来看,各海洋产业对人民币汇率升值均表现出负向响应,从侧面验证人民币汇率升值对海洋产业结构影响的分析结论。最后提出未来海洋经济发展要关注人民币汇率等政策建议。Based on the co-integration analysis,this paper studied the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on China′s marine industry.The results showed that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate would have a negative effect on the marine primary industry,but not on the marine secondary and tertiary industries.Then,this paper selected 7 marine industries,such as marine fishery and marine tourism,and used VAR model to analyze the asymmetric effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on each marine industry.All marine industries generally showed a negative response to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate.From another side,it verified the analysis conclusion of exchange rate appreciation on industrial structure.Finally,this paper put forward some policy suggestions such as paying attention to RMB exchange rate in the future development of marine economy.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 产业结构 海洋产业 非对称效应 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学] F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]