A 602-year Reconstruction of July-June Streamflow in the Kuqa River, China, Reveals the Changing Hydrological Signals of the Tarim Basin  

作　　者：SHANG Huaming CHEN Feng WEI Wenshou MAO Weiyi ZHANG Ruibo ZHANG Tongwen YU Shulong 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology,Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China [2]Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China

出　　处：《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》2020年第3期690-697,共8页地质学报（英文版）

基　　金：This work is supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20100306);the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606401);NSFC (Grant No. U1803341);the National Youth Talent Support Program and the Special Project for Key Laboratory of Autonomous Region (Grant No. 2017D04018)

摘　　要：A regional tree-ring width chronology of Schrenk spruce(Picea schrenkiana) was used to determine the annual(previous July to current June) streamflow of the Kuqa River in Xinjiang, China, for the period of 1414–2015. A linear transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 63.9% of the total variance when regressed against instrumental streamflow during 1957–2006. The model was validated by comparing the regression estimates against independent data. High streamflow periods with a streamflow above the 602-year mean occurred from 1430–1442, 1466–1492, 1557–1586, 1603–1615, 1687–1717, 1748–1767, 1795–1819, 1834–1856, 1888–1910 and 1989–2015. Low streamflow periods(streamflow below the mean) occurred from 1419–1429, 1443–1465, 1493–1556, 1587–1602, 1616–1686, 1720–1747, 1768–1794, 1820–1833, 1857–1887 and 1911–1988. The reconstruction compares well with the tree-ring-based streamflow series of the Tizinafu River from the Kunlun Mountains;both show well-known severe drought events. The streamflow reconstruction also shows highly synchronous upward trends since the 1980 s, suggesting that streamflow is related to Central Asian warming and humidification. Thus, the influences of the extremes and the persistence of low streamflows on local society may be considerable. Climatic changes in the watershed may be responsible for the change in the hydrologic regime of the Tarim Basin observed during the late twentieth century.

关 键 词：tree rings streamflow reconstruction Kuqa River Tarim Basin 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]