柯布-道格拉斯生产函数建模分析货币供给对经济增长的影响  

Cobb-Douglas Production Function Modeling the Effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth

作　　者：方芳[1] 许正松[1] FANG-Fang;XU Zheng-song(West Anhui University,Anhui Lu’an 237012)

机构地区：[1]皖西学院,安徽六安237012

出　　处：《南宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第2期58-63,共6页Journal of Nanning Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划重点项目:安徽省产业生态化改造和及一体化协调政策研究(AHSKZ2018D06)资助.

摘　　要：货币供应及其对经济的影响一直来都是学术界和社会关注的话题。该文利用1990—2018年的时间序列数据,通过柯布道格拉斯生产函数回归式建模,实证分析了我国货币供应量及其对经济的影响。结果表明,货币供应增加对名义GDP的增加有刺激作用,刺激作用主要体现在当期;资本投入和技术进步可以显著促进经济规模的扩张,但劳动投入的进一步增加则对经济规模的扩大作用非常有限。为促进我国经济又好又快发展,需要适当控制货币供应量,实施谨慎的货币政策,避免经济过热;同时继续加大全社会固定资产投资和人力资本投资;以及营造良好的氛围,将技术进步作为促进经济增长的根本手段和途径,让万众创新成为常态。Money supply and its impact on the economy has always been a topic of academic and social concern.Based on the time series data from 1990 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes China’s money supply and its impact on the economy by establishing a regression model.The results show that the increase of money supply has a stimulating effect on the increase of nominal GDP,which is mainly reflected in the current period;capital investment and technological progress can significantly promote the expansion of economic scale,but the further increase of labor investment has a very limited effect on the expansion of economic scale.In order to promote the sound and rapid development of China’s economy,it is necessary to appropriately control the money supply,implement prudent monetary policy,and avoid overheating of the economy;at the same time,continue to increase the investment in fixed assets and human capital of the whole society;and create a good atmosphere,take technological progress as the fundamental means and ways to promote economic growth,and make innovation become the normal.

关 键 词：道格拉斯生产函数 货币供应 建模分析 经济增长 技术进步 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124.1