经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新活动?——基于沪深上市公司的实证分析  

On Impact of Uncertainty of Economic Policy on Enterprises Innovation Activities:Based on Empirical Analysis of Shanghai and Shenzhen Listed Companies

作　　者：田穗[1] 赵颖 TIAN Sui;ZHAO Ying(School of Economics,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期26-31,共6页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY233)。

摘　　要：以沪深上市企业为研究对象,选取2009-2018年的面板财务数据,共计17681条,将其创新活动分为创新投入和产出分别作为因变量进行研究,经济政策不确定性则使用Baker提出的经济政策不确定性指数进行度量。通过建立计量模型,对实物期权理论进行一定的修正,使用统计产品与服务解决方案软件进行实证分析。结果表明,经济政策不确定性可以促进企业创新投入,同时抑制创新产出;从选择效应上讲,成长性强、盈利水平强、现金流水平好、无形资产占比大的企业创新活动更活跃。Taking the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen as the research object,this paper selects 17681 pieces of the panel financial data from 2009 to 2018,and divides the innovation activities into the innovation input and the output as dependent variables for research respectively,while the uncertainty of the economic policy is measured by the economic policy uncertainty index put forward by Baker.,the real option theory is modified to some extent with the establishment of the measurement model,and the statistical product and service solution software are used for the empirical analysis.The results show that the uncertainty of economic policy can promote the innovation input and restrain the innovation output;the innovation activities of enterprises with strong growth,strong profit level,good cash flow level and large proportion of intangible assets are more active from the perspective of the selection effect.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 创新活动 实物期权理论 选择效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]