基于误差修正模型的黄河源区年径流预测  

Annual Runoff Prediction in the Source Area of the Yellow River Based on Error Correction Model

作　　者：张金萍[1,2,3] 李红宾 肖宏林 张鑫 ZHANG Jinping;LI Hongbin;XIAO Honglin;ZHANG Xin(School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan Province Key Laboratory of Groundwater Pollution Prevention and Remediation,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州市水资源与水环境重点实验室,河南郑州450001 [3]河南省地下水污染防治与修复重点实验室,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2020年第7期5-8,66,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0406501);郑州大学2015年优秀青年教师发展项目(1521323002);2018年度河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划项目(18HASTIT014);中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(IWHR-SKL-KF201802);天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室资助项目(HESS-1717);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划项目(2017GGJS006)。

摘　　要：为了提升黄河源区年径流预测精度以及了解黄河源区降雨、径流、泥沙之间的相互影响关系,以黄河源区唐乃亥水文站实测年降雨量、年径流量和年输沙量作为研究数据,采用协整理论分析方法,分别建立降雨—径流、径流—泥沙两变量误差修正模型以及降雨—径流—泥沙三变量误差修正模型,对研究区年径流量进行预测。结果表明:三变量误差修正模型的拟合优度均大于两变量误差修正模型的,模型解释性更强,更能定量表现黄河源区径流量—降雨量—输沙量之间的关系;三变量误差修正模型的平均相对误差为-4.83%,可以用于黄河源区年径流预测。In order to improve the accuracy of annual runoff prediction in the source area of the Yellow River and understand the relationship between rainfall,runoff and sediment in the source area of the Yellow River,the measured annual rainfall,annual runoff and annual sedi⁃ment transport at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station in the source area of the Yellow River were taken as the research data.By using cointegra⁃tion theory analysis method to establish rainfall runoff,runoff and sediment of two⁃variable error correction model and rainfall runoff⁃sediment three⁃variable error correction model,it predicted the annual runoff of the study area.The results show that the three⁃variable error correction model fitting is better than the two⁃variable error correction model and more explanatory,more quantitative performance relationship between the source region of the Yellow River rainfall⁃runoff sediment;the average relative error of the three⁃variable error correction model is-4.83%,which can be used to forecast annual runoff in the source area of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：协整理论 误差修正模型 径流预测 黄河源区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]