考虑不确定性的水库供、蓄水调度方法研究  

Study on Water Supply and Storage Regulation Method for Reservoir Considering Uncertainty

作　　者：曾超 吴云 杨侃[1] 汤梓杰 ZENG Chao;WU Yun;YANG Kan;TANG Zijie(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Shanxi Conservancy Technical Institute,Yuncheng 044004,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]山西水利职业技术学院,山西运城044004

出　　处：《人民黄河》2020年第7期46-50,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：山西省水利科学技术项目;云南省水利厅科技项目。

摘　　要：针对较为缺水地区水库供水和蓄水之间对冲关系的问题,综合考虑了水库当前和后期的供、蓄水效益以及后期发生弃水事件和供水对象严重缺水事件的风险概率并给出其解析表达式,提出了一种考虑不确定性的水库供、蓄水优化模型,该模型可以在水库供、蓄水的对冲关系之间有效降低后期水库发生弃水和严重缺水的风险。模型通过双层优化法求解,第一层目标为全局最优,通过逐步优化法求解;第二层目标为两时段最优,通过多点出发的牛顿法求解。最后将该模型运用到较为缺水地区的蔡庄水库,结果表明了其有效性。In view of the prominent issue of the hedging relationship between water supply and storage for reservoirs in water⁃deficient areas,the current and later benefit of water supply and storage,the risk probability of abandoning water and serious water shortage in later period was considered comprehensively and their analytical expression was given.A reservoir water supply and storage optimization model considering uncertainty was proposed,which aimed at effectively reducing the risk of abandoning water and serious water shortage of reser⁃voirs in later period with the hedging relationship between water supply and storage for reservoirs.The model was solved by two⁃level optimiza⁃tion method.The first objective was global optimization,the second objective was two⁃period optimization and the Multi⁃Start Newton method was used to solve the model.Finally,the model was applied to Caizhuang Reservoir in water⁃deficient area and the results show that the mod⁃el is effective.

关 键 词：缺水地区 对冲规则 供、蓄水调度 双层优化法 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]