安阳市水资源失衡风险经济损失研究  

Study on Economic Loss and Its Driving Factors Caused by the Risk of Water Resources Imbalance in Anyang City

作　　者：焦士兴[1] 陈林芳 王安周 李中轩 赵荣钦 尹义星 李青云 JIAO Shixing;CHEN Linfang;WANG Anzhou;LI Zhongxuan;ZHAO Rongqin;YIN Yixing;LI Qingyun(School of Resources&Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455002,China;Luoyang No.19 Middle School,Luoyang 471000,China;School of Urban⁃Rural Planning and Architecture,Xuchang University,Xuchang 461000,China;School of Surveying and Geo⁃Informatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455002 [2]洛阳市第十九中学,河南洛阳471000 [3]许昌学院城乡规划与园林学院,河南许昌461000 [4]华北水利水电大学测绘与地理信息学院,河南郑州450046 [5]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《人民黄河》2020年第7期57-61,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41501136);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(19A170001);河南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010479032);安阳市2020年科技发展计划项目。

摘　　要：为定量评价水资源失衡风险造成的经济损失,运用数据包络分析法测算了安阳市的水资源利用效率,探讨了水资源失衡风险导致的经济损失,并利用Tobit模型研究了水资源失衡风险的驱动因素。结果表明:①安阳市的水资源利用效率均呈波动上升趋势且存在区域差异,多年均值排序为安阳县>汤阴县>滑县>内黄县>安阳市区>林州市;②汤阴县、滑县和内黄县的年均经济损失较小,水资源利用效率逐步提高;安阳市区、安阳县和林州市的年均经济损失较大,水资源消耗量大且利用率较低;③安阳市城镇化率与水资源利用效率成较弱负相关关系,而经济发展水平对水资源利用效率的影响很小;产业结构优化调整能提升水资源利用效率,但短期内效果不明显;政府干预对安阳市区、林州市水资源利用效率影响有限,但对安阳市其他区域则有积极影响。In order to quantitatively evaluate the economic loss caused by the risk of water resources imbalance,the utilization efficiency of water resources was calculated by using the data envelopment analysis method,the economic losses which caused by the risk of water re⁃sources imbalance were evaluated and the driving factors of water resources imbalance were studied by using Tobit model in Anyang City.The results show that a)the utilization efficiency of water resources shows an upward trend and there appears regional differences.The order of annual average value of the utilization efficiency of water resources is Anyang County>Tangyin County>Huaxian County>Neihuang County>downtown of Anyang>Linzhou City.b)The annual average economic losses are relatively smaller in Tangyin County,Huaxian County and Neihuang County,and the utilization efficiency of water resources increases gradually,while the annual average economic losses are relatively bigger in the downtown of Anyang,Anyang County and Linzhou City and there are larger consumption and lower utilization of water resources.c)The utilization efficiency of water resources and urbanization has negative correlation slightly,while the economic development level has little effect on the utilization efficiency of water resources.Industrial structure adjustment may promote the utilization efficiency of water re⁃sources,but the effect is not significant in the short term.Government intervention has limited effect on the utilization efficiency of water re⁃sources in the downtown of Anyang and Linzhou City,but has positive effect on the other counties of Anyang City.

关 键 词：数据包络分析法 TOBIT模型 经济损失 驱动因素 安阳市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]