央行信息披露、货币政策时滞与金融市场利率  

Information Disclosure of the People’s Bank of China, Time Lag of Monetary Policy and Financial Market Interest Rate

作　　者：高歌 何启志[1] GAO Ge;HE Qizhi(School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期43-49,共7页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2019085)。

摘　　要：选择上海银行间同业拆放利率(SHIBOR)作为金融市场利率的典型变量,利用2008年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,实证考察了变动法定存款准备金率、变动广义货币供应量增长率与央行信息披露对金融市场利率的作用力度及传导时滞,并对央行信息披露有效性进行了评价。研究结果表明:央行信息披露、变动法定存款准备金率和变动广义货币供应量增长率都能影响SHIBOR变动,但对SHIBOR的作用力度有明显差异;央行信息披露对SHIBOR的作用时滞比变动广义货币供应量增长率和法定存款准备金率短,能够有效减缓货币政策不确定性;中央银行可以根据三者的时滞、作用力度特点灵活搭配以调节金融市场利率,从而有效减少货币政策不确定性带来的风险。Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2018 and selecting SHIBOR as the typical variable of interest rate in financial market,this paper empirically analyzes the action force and time lag of the adjustment of reserve requirement ratio and M2 growth rate as well as the information disclosure of the People’s Bank of China on the financial market interest rate,and evaluates the effectiveness of the information disclosure of the People’s Bank of China.The results show that the information disclosure of the People’s Bank of China,and the adjustment of reserve requirement ratio and M2 growth rate can affect SHIBOR,but the effects on SHIBOR are different;the impact lag of the information disclosure of the People’s Bank of China on SHIBOR is shorter than those of the adjustment of reserve requirement ratio and M2 growth rate,which can effectively reduce the uncertainty of monetary policy;the People’s Bank of China can adjust the financial market interest rate flexibly according to the time lag effect and action force of the three factors,which can effectively reduce the risk brought by uncertainty.

关 键 词：央行信息披露 SHIBOR 货币政策时滞 不确定性 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]