中国传染病防控预警机制探究--来自新冠病毒疫情早期防控中的启示  

Study on the Mechanism of Pre-Alert System for Epidemic Prevention and Control in China:The Implication of the Pre-Alert System Failure of COVID-19

作　　者：华生[1,2,3] 蔡倩[1] 汲铮 董申 Hua Sheng

机构地区：[1]武汉大学董辅礽经济社会发展研究院 [2]东南大学国家发展与政策研究院 [3]东南大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2020年第4期1-12,M0004,共13页Journal of Management World

摘　　要：在应对新型冠状病毒肺炎中,预警机制未达到预期效果,暴露出我国在重大疫情防控体制机制存在的明显短板。本文通过对中国传染病彷控预警机制的梳理,剖析位于公共卫生防御体系最核心的国家传染病网络直报系统管理者的治理结构问题,指出预警机制在此次疫情暴发初期未能真正奏效的主要原因是,管理架构设置不当所导致的激励不相容问题。本文通过构建中央一地方两层次模型,将疫情发生的概率、外部性(额外或有损失)、地方政府的行政惩罚以及外生给定的法律环境等多个影响因子引入模型,证明额外负外部性和行政惩罚越大,越应该将地方政府的行政权力收归中央,从而采用垂直管理模式;而法律厘定责任清晰且惩罚力度越大,则越适宜采用分级管理模式。同时进一步指出疫情发生的低概率会一定程度钝化法律惩罚实施效果。最后,据此提出应将现有分级管理模式改为垂直管理模式等若干政策建议,以期为改进组织构架来完善重大疫情防控体制机制提供一定的理论支撑和参考。In response to the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia,the alert mechanism has failed again,which shows the dysfunction of China's major epidemic prevention and control mechanisms.This paper analyzes the governance structure of the national infectious disease network reporting system at the core of the public health defense system by combing the infectious disease prevention and pre-alert mechanism in China.The reason for this is incentives are not compatible due to improper management structure.By constructing a central-local two-level model including multiple impact factors such as the probability of an outbreak,externalities(additional or loss),administrative punishment by the local government,and the exogenous legal environment to prove the additional negative factors.The result shows the greater the externalities and administrative penalties,the more the local government's administrative power should be centralized and the vertical management model should be adopted;while the clearer legal responsibility and the greater the penalties,the more appropriate the hierarchical management model is.At the same time,it is further pointed out that the low probability of outbreaks will to some extent passivate the effect of legal punishment.Finally,based on this,a number of policy suggestions such as changing the existing hierarchical management model to a vertical management model are proposed,with a view to providing some theoretical support and reference for improving the organizational structure and the major epidemic prevention and control mechanism.

关 键 词：疫情预警机制 组织架构 激励相容 

分 类 号：S85[农业科学—兽医学]