有关新冠肺炎潜伏期和疑似期的统计数据分析:基于湖北省外2172条确诊数据  

Statistical Data Analysis on the Incubation and Suspected Period of COVID-19 Based on 2172 Confirmed Cases Outside Hubei Province

作　　者：刘小惠[1] 何阳 麻先思 罗良清[1] LIU Xiaohui;HE Yang;MA Xiansi;LUO Liangqing(The school of statistics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《应用数学学报》2020年第2期278-294,共17页Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.11971208,11601197);中国博士后基金项目(2016M600511,2017T100475);江西省自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(2018ACB21002);江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2019-S216)资助项目

摘　　要：自2019年12月以来,新冠肺炎的暴发已迅速演变成为重大公共卫生事件,它因传染性极强、可致患者产生严重症状甚至死亡,为相关防控工作带来极大挑战.考虑到潜伏期、疑似期的分布关系到新冠肺炎疫情防控中的隔离期设置和相关的预测,本文收集整理了湖北省以外29个省市2172条新冠肺炎确诊病例的相关信息(数据来源于卫健委等网上公开数据),分析了性别、年龄等因素对潜伏期的影响情况,并给出了相关潜伏期和疑似期的分布函数估计.研究发现,新冠肺炎潜伏期的0.95分位点为15.05天,并建议使用不同经济层次地区或省份的相关信息对当前其他不同国家流行病的发展状况进行预测.预计目前的研究结果可能对后续新冠肺炎的相关研究提供参考.Since December 2019,the outbreak of the disease of novel coronavirus pneumonia,hereafter named COVID-19,has rapidly evolved into a magnitude outburst public health incident.It has posed great challenges to related prevention and control work of COVID-19 because of the strong infectious and bad consequences that cause severe symptoms and even death.Considering that the incubation and suspected period distributions play important roles in setting the quarantine and modelling the prediction in prevention of COVID-19,this paper collects and analyzes the data of 2172 confirmed cases in 29 provinces(The data are taken from the public websites of the Health Commission),and estimates the incubation and suspected period distributions with Weibull distribution.The 95 th quantile of the incubation period distribution is 15.05 days.We suggest that one may use the related results of areas or provinces of different economic level in China in forecasting the epidemic situation of the other countries.It is expected that the current results have the potential to help the further studies of COVID-19.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 潜伏期分布 有偏抽样 疑似期分布 

分 类 号：O212.7[理学—概率论与数理统计]