基于Bernstein模型的新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情发展研究  

Research on the Development of Coronavirus(COVID-19) Epidemic Based on Bernstein Model

作　　者：朱淼 朱建平[2,3] ZHU Miao;ZHU JIANPING(Institute of Communications Engineering,Tsinghua University,Hsinchu 30013,Taiwan,China;School of management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]台湾清华大学通信工程研究所,中国台湾新竹30013 [2]厦门大学管理学院,厦门361005 [3]厦门大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院,厦门361005

出　　处：《应用数学学报》2020年第2期402-414,共13页Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica

基　　金：厦门大学“双一流”重点建设项目“文化传承创新”的阶段性成果.

摘　　要：本论文针对国家卫生健康委员会公开提供的有关新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情数据,通过累计确诊人数与疑似病例人数的综合量化,提出了抗击疫情信心指数,利用该指数客观地反应了人们对战胜新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情的信心.在此基础上,以误差目标为要求,通过模拟构建了Bernstein基函数建模,结合物理意义上的速率概念,深入地对新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情的发展趋势进行了分析,取得了良好的效果.According to the public data of Coronavirus(COVID-19) form National Health Committee of the People’s Republic of China,we comprehensively quantified the number of confirmed patients and the status of suspected cases,and finally proposed the confidence index to fight the epidemic.The use of this index objectively reflects people’s confidence in defeating the pneumonia outbreak of new coronavirus infection.On this basis,with an error target as the requirement,we modeling of Bernstein basis functions by simulation of the Coronavirus(COVID-19) epidemic.Combining with the concept of rate in the physical sense,the proposed trends of new coronavirus-infected pneumonia were thoroughly analyzed and analyzed,and good results were achieved.

关 键 词：新型肺炎 BERNSTEIN基函数 信心指数 

分 类 号：O213.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]