北极冰融对我国地缘经济的影响  

The Impact of Arctic Ice Melting on China’s Geo-economy

作　　者：李大海 张荧楠 Li Dahai;Zhang Yingnan(Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266100,P.R.China;College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院 [2]青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室,青岛266237 [3]中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛266100

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第4期111-121,共11页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：中国海洋发展研究会资助项目“海上丝绸之路建设中的战略支点问题研究”(CAMAJJ201703);山东省社科规划项目“山东省建设海洋综合性国家科学中心研究”(19CHYJ09)。

摘　　要：北极是受全球气候变化影响最为显著的地区。北极地区的积冰消融使其航道、油气等资源开发价值逐步凸显。对我国而言,北极冰融带来了北极航运、油气、渔业及旅游业开发机会,对我国经济发展和资源供给优化均具有正面影响。在各方面影响中,北极航线开通的地缘经济影响最大,2030年和2050年,东北航线承载物流价值有望达到我国外贸总额的3%和5%,成为我国与欧洲贸易的重要通道,西北航线亦可承载一定货物运输。北极油气商业开发潜力很大,但目前面临诸多风险,可视为长期战略性资源。北极渔业及旅游业开发也具有一定价值。对此,我国应当找准自身定位,以合作开发为主要手段,稳步推进北极开发活动,在观测和基础科学研究、相关制造业培育、基础设施建设、治理参与等方面扮演重要角色。The Arctic is a region most affected by global climate change.The ice melting in the Arctic region has gradually highlighted the value of resources development,such as waterways,oil and gas.For our country,the Arctic ice melting has brought opportunities for the development of Arctic shipping,oil and gas,fisheries and tourism,and has a positive impact on the economic development and resource supply optimization.For China,the improvement of Arctic shipping conditions will have an important impact on China’s maritime logistics pattern.Opening of the Arctic route has the greatest impact on the geo-economy.In 2030 and 2050,the value of logistics carried by Northeast Route is expected to reach 3%and 5%of China’s total foreign trade,and Northwest Route can also carry certain goods,which can also carry certain goods.Arctic oil and gas commercial development has great potential,but now it faces many risks,which can be regarded as long-term strategic resources.Arctic fisheries and tourism development also have some value.China should find its own position,take cooperative development as the main means,steadily promote Arctic development activities,and play an important role in basic scientific research,manufacturing development,infrastructure construction,ecological environment protection and indigenous development.

关 键 词：北极 地缘经济 冰上丝绸之路 北极航线 北极油气资源 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] P744.4[天文地球—海洋科学]