经济周期协同性的贸易传导研究--基于贸易关联与生产分割视角  

Research on the Trade Transmission of Business Cycle Synergy--Based on the Perspective of Trade Coupling and Fragmentation of Production

作　　者：刘会政[1] 杨楠 LIU Huizheng;YANG Nan(Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2020年第3期53-71,共19页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于全球价值链的政府贸易政策救济决策过程重构与评估方法研究”(71774008);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“全球价值链重构下贸易保护的影响效应测度与治理体系构建”(71803005);北京社会科学基金项目“新能源产业政策与贸易政策的匹配性研究”(15JGC147)。

摘　　要：国际贸易是经济周期传导的重要途径。全球价值链分工体系的发展使国家间贸易关联程度与生产分割程度提高,对经济周期协同性产生影响。本文使用2000-2014年世界投入产出数据库,以中国与贸易伙伴国间经济周期协同性为研究对象,探究贸易关联程度以及生产分割程度对经济周期协同性及其贸易传导效应的影响。研究发现:(1)高附加值的复杂生产贸易活动带来的贸易关联对经济周期协同性的影响更大。此外,生产分割程度越高,垂直专业化分工传递机制作用更明显,对经济冲击的传递性更强。(2)全球价值链分工通过提高增加值贸易与产业内贸易的供给和需求,通过提高产业结构差异度,提高经济周期协同性。(3)中国与发达国家的贸易关联程度高于中国与发展中国家,且更多集中于附加价值高的生产与贸易活动中,对经济周期协同性的影响效果更显著。International trade is an important way to conduct business cycles.The development of the division of labor system in the global value chain increases the degree of trade linkages and production division between countries,having a great impact on business cycle synergy.This paper uses the input-output database from 2000 to 2014,and studies the economic cycle synergy between China and trading partner countries as the research objects,and explores the impact of the degree of trade association and the degree of production division on the synergy of the business cycle and its trade transmission effect.The results are shown as follows.(1)The trade association brought by the high value-added complex production and trade activities has a greater impact on the synergy of the economic cycle.In addition,the higher the degree of production division,the more pronounced the role of the vertical specialization transfer mechanism,and the stronger the transmission of economic shocks.(2)The division of labor in the global value chain improves the synergy of economic cycles by increasing the supply and demand of value-added trade and intra-industry trade,by increasing the degree of industrial structure differences.(3)The degree of trade linkage between China and developed countries is higher than that between China and developing countries,and more concentrated in production and trade activities with high added value,which has a more significant effect on the synergy of economic cycles.

关 键 词：经济周期协同性 贸易传导效应 生产分割 贸易关联 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济] F224