递进式山洪灾害风险预警研究与实践  

Risk Early Warning Research of Progressive-Type Mountain Torrent Disaster and Practice

作　　者：雷声[1] 刘业伟[1] LEI Sheng;LIU Ye-wei(Jiangxi Province Institute of Water Conservancy and Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第7期87-90,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：江西省重点研发计划-重点项目(20161BBG70088);江西省水利科技计划项目(202022YBKT05)。

摘　　要：从近年来我国山洪灾害风险预警的主要建设内容、取得的主要成效和存在的问题等方面分析了我国山洪灾害风险预警现状。针对当前山洪频发区"落地雨"预测监测难、预警信息传达不及时、精准预警难、有效转移少等问题,构建了由气象先导预警、小流域实时定向预警、社区自主预警三种模式组成的递进式预警体系,并以江西省为例进行了实践应用。该预警体系以雨情发展为主线,使山洪灾害防治区预警范围从大区域到小流域到沿河村落、预警过程从雨前到落地到水位上涨、预警精度从预报到准确,预警对象从公众到受灾群众层层递进和聚焦,互为备份和补充,形成完整的预警体系。研究成果对于提升山洪灾害风险管理水平有重要意义。This paper analyzes the current situation of risk early warning of mountain torrents in China from the aspects of main construction contents,achievements and existing problems in recent years.In view of the problems existing in the early warning of"landing rain"in the areas with frequent mountain torrents,such as the difficulties in prediction and monitoring,the untimely communication of early warning information,the difficulty in effective transfer of accurate early warning,the progressive early warning system is studied and constructed,which consists of three modes:weather leading early warning,small watershed real-time directional early warning and community independent early warning.Jiangxi Province was taken as an example for practical application.The developing rain was taken as the main line in three modes,which makes the early warning range of mountain flood disaster prevention and control area from large area to small watershed to villages along the river,process from before rain to landing to rising of water level,more accurate prediction,objects from the public to the affected people,step by step and focus,back up and supplement each other,and forms a complete early warning system.The research has important significance for improving the level of mountain flood disaster risk management.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 递进式 风险 气象预警 社区预警 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]