长江武惠堤堤防渗透破坏风险计算模型及应用  

Calculation Model and Application of Seepage Failure Risk of Yangtze River Embankment

作　　者：文锋 胡田清 朱光华[3] 高培培 胡少华[1] WEN Feng;HU Tian-qing;ZHU Guang-hua;GAO Pei-pei;HU Shao-hua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning.Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China;Fujian Provincial Investigation Design&Research Institute of Water Conservancy&Hydropower,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [3]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院,福建福州350001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第7期130-133,121,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金(CX2019B04);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51609184)。

摘　　要：针对渗透水压力引起堤防渗透破坏问题,以堤防渗透破坏风险为目标,考虑堤防计算水位条件和土层渗透系数的不确定性,建立了堤防渗透破坏风险计算模型。以长江武惠堤17+750断面为例,对汉口水文站水位监测资料进行分析并拟合水位概率密度函数,对该断面渗流规律进行有限元分析,从而拟合渗透破坏概率密度函数,以此建立该断面堤防渗透破坏风险定量表达式。研究结果表明,武惠堤17+750断面堤防在警戒水位与防洪设计水位下,渗透破坏概率分别为0.442 9、0.764 0,渗透破坏风险分别为0.001 421、0.002 52;堤防渗透破坏风险随着堤外水位的升高而增加,但在防洪设计水位内运行时,堤防渗透破坏风险低,堤防渗流安全可得到有效控制。Aiming at the threat of seepage failure caused by the seepage water pressure,taking the risk of seepage failure of embankment as the goal,considering the uncertainty of water level condition and permeability coefficient of soil layer,a calculation model of seepage failure risk is established.Taking the 17+750 Section of Wuhui embankment of the Yangtze River as an example,the monitoring data of water level in Hankou hydrological station are analyzed,and the probability density function of water level is fitted.Then the seepage law of this section is analyzed by finite element method.The probability density function of seepage failure is fitted to establish the quantitative expression of seepage failure risk.The results show that under the warning water level and flood control design water level,the probability of seepage failure for 17+750 Section of Wuhuidi embankment is 0.4429 and 0.7640,respectively,and the risk of seepage failure is 0.001421 and 0.00252,respectively.The risk of seepage failure of embankment increases with the increase of water level outside the embankment,but when the embankment is operated under the flood control design water level,the risk of seepage failure is low,and the seepage safety of embankment can be effectively controlled.

关 键 词：堤防 渗透破坏 风险分析 破坏概率 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]