黄河三角洲高效生态经济区承接产业转移潜力时空演化特征分析  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Industrial Transfer Potential in the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Eco-Economic Zone

作　　者：张峰 薛惠锋[2] 董会忠[1] ZHANG Feng;XUE Hui-feng;DONG Hui-zhong(School of Management,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012,China;China Academy of Aerospace System Scientific and Engineering,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255012 [2]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第7期101-113,共13页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“生态脆弱区乡村承接城市产业转移潜力测度、门槛机制与振兴策略研究:以黄河三角洲为例”(19YJC630211);国家自然科学基金项目“区域复合生态经济系统耦合效应与政策调控研究——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例”(71371112)。

摘　　要：推进承接产业转移是促进区域一体化发展的关键环节。以影响承接产业转移的复杂要素为研究视角,建立涵盖产业吸引、产业承接、产业筛选与产业发展等维度的承接产业转移潜力指数评价体系,构建其潜力指数的“纵横向”拉开档次法测度模型和探索性空间数据分析模型,对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区承接产业转移潜力指数进行评价分析和空间分异特征检验。结果表明:黄河三角洲高效生态经济区承接产业转移潜力指数的地区差异主要表现于产业承载能力的强弱,地区经济水平、对外开放程度等因素与承接产业转移潜力指数具有较高关联度,而产业筛选能力是其薄弱环节,这类因素地理空间差异较大、地域发展与配置状况不协调,是制约潜力指数提升的重要短板;2008-2017年期间承接产业转移潜力指数总体上表现为相对稳定的提升趋势,但是各地区潜力指数及约束短板存在显著的空间异质性,而且同比之下,多数地区对劳动密集型产业具有相对较高的承接潜力,而对技术和资本密集型等产业承接潜力尚显不足,积极顺应地区产业振兴趋势,促进生产要素合理流通是提升潜力指数的关键;承接产业转移潜力指数存在显著的空间正相关性,其中低高、低低集聚类型数量要高于高高集聚,潜力指数较高地区对周边地带的辐射效应相对较弱,同时其空间状态上呈现“渤海湾极化现象”,而在冷热点地区演化中,热点与次热点地区变化相对稳定而次冷点与冷点地区变化较为明显。Promoting the transfer of industries is an important part in the development of regional integration.Hence,the complex multiple factors that influence the transfer of industry are selected as research perspectives,and the evaluation system of undertaking industrial transfer potential index covering the four dimensions of industrial attraction,undertaking,screening and development is established.Moreover,the"vertical and horizontal"pull-off method measurement model and the exploratory spatial data analysis model of the potential index are also constructed to measure and analyze the industrial transfer potential index and its spatial differentiation characteristics of the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Eco-economic Zone.The results show that,the difference in the industrial transfer potential index of the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Eco-economic Zone is mainly reflected in the strength of the industrial carrying capacity,and the factors such as the economy level and the degree of opening up to the outside world are highly correlated with the index of undertaking industrial transfer potential,while the ability of industrial screening is weaker.Such factors have large differences in geospatial space,uncoordinated regional development and allocation,which are important shortcoming that restricts the improvement of the potential index.During the period of 2008—2017,the industrial transfer potential index generally shows a relatively stable upward trend,but there are significant regional heterogeneities in the regional potential indices and their constraints,and most regions have relatively high undertaking potential for labor-intensive industries,while the undertaking potential for technology and capital-intensive industries is lower,so actively adapting to the trend of regional industrial revitalization and promoting the rational circulation of production factors are the key to improving the potential index.There is a significant spatial positive correlation in undertaking the industrial transfer potentia

关 键 词：黄河三角洲 承接产业转移 生态经济 影响因素 空间分异 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]