基于改进灰色关联度的铁路大宗货运运价风险评估研究  

A Study on the Railway Freight Rates Risk Assessment System based on Improved Grey Relational Analysis

作　　者：曾进[1] 戚芳榕 郭少媛 潘红芹 董宝田[1] ZENG Jin;QI Fangrong;GUO Shaoyuan;PAN Hongqin;DONG Baotian(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Information Engineering Management Department,China Railway Information Science Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100844,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]中国铁路信息科技有限责任公司信息工程管理部,北京100844

出　　处：《铁道货运》2020年第6期48-54,共7页Railway Freight Transport

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(2017X004-A)。

摘　　要：铁路大宗货运运价的风险评估研究可以提升铁路大宗货运营销能力,以辅助货运运价管理人员判断市场运价风险态势,做出正确的运价调整方向决策,提高铁路运输企业的经营效益。基于改进的灰色关联度分析方法模型,计算大宗货运运价综合状态评估值。并从竞争者、铁路企业、货主和宏观经济环境4个角度,共选取15个运价风险评估指标,建立运价风险评估指标体系。最后,以S铁路局集团公司2018年实际煤炭运输价格为例进行实例分析,计算出其货运运价风险的综合状态评估值和评估等级,有助于调整完善铁路大宗货运运价制定。Based on their judgment of the market price risk situation,Risk assessment of railway bulk freight rates can improve the marketing ability of railway major bulks freight by assisting the pricing management personnel to make correct decisions of price adjustment direction,which is expected to facilitate improving the operation efficiency of railway transport enterprises.This paper calculates the comprehensive status assessment of major bulks freight rates based on the improved grey relational analysis model.Furthermore,in terms of competitors,railway companies,shippers,and the macroeconomic environment,this paper identifies 15 freight rates risk assessment index to establish the railway freight-risk assessment system.To adjust and improve the formulation of railway freight rates for major bulks,this paper carries out a case analysis of the proposal with the coal transport prices with China Railway S Group in 2018,which calculates the comprehensive status assessment value and assessment grade of freight rates risk..

关 键 词：铁路 大宗货运 运价风险评估 指标体系 改进灰色关联度 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]