基于不确定性理论的防相撞人因CREAM模型  

CREAM model of human factors for collision avoidance based on the uncertainty theory

作　　者：魏燕明[1] 甘旭升[2] 丁黎颖 孙静娟[2] 刘飞 WEI Yan-ming;GAN Xu-sheng;DING Li-ying;SUN Jing-juan;LIU Fei(College of Science,Xijing College,Xi'an 710123,China;Air Traffic Control and Navigation College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]西京学院理学院,西安710123 [2]空军工程大学空管领航学院,西安710051

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第2期595-601,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：提高人的可靠性,可最大限度降低人为差错发生的概率,改善防相撞工作的安全管理水平。为此,基于认知可靠性和失误分析方法 (CREAM)与不确定性理论建立防相撞人因失效分析模型。首先,采用CREAM扩展法,建立认知需求剖面,评价共同绩效条件,识别失效模式,预测失效概率;然后,在无客观历史数据情况下,基于不确定性理论对专家数据进行处理,修正CREAM得出的失效概率,评估事故中人的可靠性。以管制员为主体的空中相撞事故的实例分析表明,此方法可对防相撞工作中人的可靠性进行定量评估,且过程严谨,操作性强,可信度高;还能够采集和丰富人为因素的基本数据,表明其在防相撞人因失效分析中也有一定可行性和有效性。To make an analysis and evaluation of the human reliability in the flight collision avoidance,the present paper has introduced a human reliability analysis theory and an uncertainty theory to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the causes of human errors in the work on how to get rid of flight collisions.As it can be seen,in the proposed method for flight collision avoidance,we have made suggestions on how to raise the human reliability to reduce the liability of human errors and improve the safety management levels of the flight collision avoidance to the greatest extent.The study results we have gained can provide a theoretical support for improving the management level of human errors and the control approach to preventing the likely human errors,so as to effectively reduce the human reckless controlling factors and practical steps to heighten the anti-collision safety management level.That is to say,first of all,after comparing and analyzing several typical human factors reliability analysis techniques,it is of primary importance to select the extended version of the cognitive reliability and the error analysis method(CREAM)for the accident,so as to establish the cognitive demand profiles and identify the failure modes to predict the failure probability.And,then,in the absence of the objective history data,it would be possible to analyze the uncertainty distribution and uncertainty reliability to process the data given by the relevant aviation experts,and revise the failure probability obtained by CREAM based on uncertainty distribution based on the uncertainty theory.And,eventually,the human reliability in the accident and event which have occurred can be evaluated in accordance with the serial and parallel reliability principles.And,then,the example analysis of the midair collision accident via the air traffic controller as the main body should be able to indicate that,the model we have built up is available for quantitating the reliability of the air traffic controllers in the case of the emergency op

关 键 词：安全工程 不确定性理论 共同绩效条件 失效概率 认知可靠性 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]