农村低保会挤出子女对老年父母的代际转移吗?——来自中国健康与养老追踪调查的证据  

Will Rural Dibao Crowd-out Intergenerational Transfers from Children to Their Aging Parents?Evidence from CHARLS

作　　者：韩华为[1] Han Huawei(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院

出　　处：《社会保障评论》2020年第2期70-86,共17页Chinese Social Security Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国农村低保救助的瞄准、减贫效应和行为激励研究”(71703008)。

摘　　要：基于2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,使用倾向值匹配分析方法,本文实证考察了农村低保对老年受助者和其成年子女之间代际经济转移的影响效应。研究结果发现,获得农村低保会显著挤出老年受助者来自子女的代际转移净值。从转移的方向来看,挤出效应主要体现为低保对子女向老年父母代际转移的影响,而低保对老年父母向子女代际转移的影响并不显著。从转移的构成来看,低保主要挤出了老年父母来自子女的非定期转移,而对定期转移的影响并不显著。低保对代际转移的挤出效应在不同收入组群中存在异质性。低保对代际转移的挤出效应仅在收入最低组群中表现显著。在评估农村低保政策效果时,研究者应该根据上述挤出效应对评估结果做出相应调整。Using national survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2015 and a propensity score matching(PSM)method,this article empirically examines the effect of rural Dibao participation on intergenerational transfers between adult children and their aging parents.The results show that Dibao participation had a significant crowding-out effect on net intergenerational transfers from children to their aging parents.While Dibao could crowd-out the transfers from children to their aging parents,this effect in the reverse direction on the transfer from aging parents to their children was not significant.Dibao had a notable crowding-out effect on irregular,rather than regular intergenerational transfers,and heterogenous effects across income quintiles Only for the group with the lowest income could Dibao crowd-out intergenerational transfers.Researchers should adjust for the crowding-out effect in the impact evaluation of rural Dibao.

关 键 词：农村低保 代际转移 挤出效应 倾向值匹配 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济] D632.1[政治法律—政治学]