预期业绩与IPO公司风险对策披露  

Expected Performance and Risk Countermeasures Disclosure of IPO Firms

作　　者：白云霞[1] 李璇 BAI Yunxia;LI Xuan(Tongji University, 200029;Guizhou University, 550025)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,200029 [2]贵州大学管理学院,550025

出　　处：《财贸经济》2020年第7期67-82,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融制度变迁与企业期限错配”(71472138)。

摘　　要：基于2007—2012年IPO公司招股说明书中风险信息披露的数据,本文考察了我国IPO公司是否通过披露风险对策进行风险信息的管理和操纵。研究发现,IPO公司披露风险对策的一个动机是掩饰预期未来业绩下降的风险,在控制公司基础风险的情况下,IPO公司预期未来业绩越差,披露包含对策的风险信息越多。进一步,预期业绩与IPO公司风险对策披露的关系在信息操纵动机更大的公司当中更强,由此验证了我们关于风险对策披露的信息操纵动机假说。在拓展性分析中,本文发现,IPO公司风险对策披露显著降低了IPO抑价和上市后短期内的股票收益波动率,但同时也降低了公司的长期市场回报。这说明在发行上市过程中,风险对策披露降低了投资者对拟上市公司风险的感知,但从长期来看,投资者能够识破IPO公司风险对策披露的信息操纵行为并给予惩罚。本文的研究结论对规范我国上市公司风险信息披露和未来注册制下IPO公司信息披露监管具有重要启示。Based on the data of risk factors disclosure in IPO prospectuses from 2007 to 2012,this paper investigates whether Chinese IPO firms use risk countermeasures disclosure to manage and manipulate information.We find that one of the motives for IPO firms to disclose risk countermeasures is to cover up the decline of expected performance.After controlling the firm's underlying risks,the worse the IPO firm expects its performance to be,the more it will disclose about risk factors including countermeasures.Furthermore,the relationship between the expected performance and the risk countermeasures disclosure is stronger among the firms with strong motive for information manipulation and low reputation of the underwriters,so this proves our hypothesis of information manipulation motive behind risk countermeasures disclosure.In the expansibility analysis,we find that,the disclosure of risk countermeasures significantly reduces IPO underpricing,short-term stock return volatility and long-term market returns,which indicates that in the short term,the disclosure of risk countermeasures reduces the investors'perception of the risks of IPO firms,but in the long run,investors can see through it and punish the firms for information manipulation through risk countermeasures disclosure.The conclusions of this paper have important implications for regulating the risk factors disclosure of listed companies and the information disclosure of IPO firms in the context of registration system in China.

关 键 词：风险对策 预期业绩 信息操纵 IPO公司 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]