国际金融的“赫希曼效应”  

The Hirschman Effect of International Financial Ties

作　　者：庞珣[1] 陈冲 Pang Xun;Chen Chong(Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2020年第6期132-155,160,共25页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“地缘政治风险预测的理论与方法研究”(项目批准号:17ZDA110)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2008年国际金融危机引发对全球治理体系的深入反思和创新尝试,加速了国际关系中的权力转移和结构变迁。中央银行间双边货币互换协定体系从危机中脱颖而出并迅速生长。中国以包容的态度和积极的行动一跃成为双边货币互换协定全球网络的中心,在国内外广泛引发有关国际金融纽带如何塑造国际关系的理论思考和政策探寻。聚焦于中国货币互换协定的国际政治影响,作者根据协定在相互依存和风险信息两个维度上的不对称性特质,重新审视关于国际经济关系会带来外交立场接近的“赫希曼效应”,强调互换协定的塑造性权力以及信号传递实践开启的认同塑造和互信构建进程。在理论分析的基础上,作者采用定量和定性相结合的方法进行实证探索。回归分析运用混合效应模型对191个国家在2009—2018年的数据进行假设检验,在普遍性上支持了中国货币互换协定会产生“赫希曼效应”。作者以阿根廷为案例进行的定性研究,使用合成控制法提高案例研究在比较分析上的客观性和因果分析上的严密性,追踪和解释了“赫希曼效应”在方向和程度上的动态变化。这些分析深化了关于经济相互依存如何塑造国家关系的理论思考,也有助于从国际关系视角来理解人民币国际化的政策、进程和影响。合成控制法将定量方法服务于质性研究,是一种富有前景的个案研究路径。The 2008 International financial crisis triggered wide criticisms of current global governance as well as individual and collective efforts to reform the system.The crisis also accelerated power transition and structural changes in international relations.Central bank bilateral SWAP agreements(BSAs)re⁃emerged in the crisis and widely spread at a global scale.China took an inclusive and active attitude toward BSAs and quickly moved to the center of the global BSA network,which simulated theoretical discussions and policy debates regarding how international financial ties shape inter⁃state relations and the world order.Focusing on the foreign policy implications of Chi⁃nese BSAs,this article investigates how asymmetric interdependence and asymmetric information—two intrinsic features of BSAs—generate the“Hirschman Effect”that re⁃fers to foreign policy convergence caused by economic interdependence.The theory de⁃veloped in this research emphasizes the shaping power of BSAs and the“trusting rela⁃tionship”that is constructed,maintained,and strengthened in the signaling process to overcome the“moral hazard”problem.The paper applies a mixed approach to empiri⁃cally test the theoretical argument.In the large⁃n study,mixed⁃effect models are ap⁃plied to a sample of 191 countries in the years between 2009 and 2018,and empiri⁃cal evidence suggests a significant effect of foreign policy convergence between China and its BSA partner countries.The paper then takes Argentina as an in⁃depth case study,and uses the Synthetic Control method to construct a“synthetic Argentina”as a counter⁃factual to estimate the trajectory of the causal effect of the BSA on Argentinas foreign policy standing relative to that of China.This research contributes to the literature on how economic interdependence affects international relations,and helps understand the grand strategy of Renminbi internationalization.The findings based on the Synthetic Control approach complement and strengthen the large⁃n s

关 键 词：金融外交 央行货币互换协定 赫希曼效应 合成控制法 金融全球治理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]