基于逐步回归法的春季雾分析预报模型  

Case analysis of Convective Initiation Nowcasting System(CINS)

作　　者：顾成恺 李峰[2] 李楠[3] 韩韡 刁兴光 Gu Chengkai;Li Feng;Li Nan;Han Wei;Diao Xingguang(Dalian Air Traffic Administration Station of CAAC,Dalian 116033 Liaoning China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 China;Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044 Jiangsu China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大连空中交通管理站,辽宁大连116033 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国民航飞行学院学报》2020年第4期25-29,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China

摘　　要：本文根据大连机场2010-2017年各类天气资料,利用spss18.0数据分析软件,研究影响机场春季雾日能见度值变化的因子,所选预报因子包括风向、风速、温度、温度露点差、相对湿度等,通过主成份分析和逐步回归分析方法,筛选预报因子并建立线性回归模型,找出影响春季雾日能见度变化的主要气象因子及其影响规律,最终进行残差分析以及方程回代检验和试报。结果表明,显著影响能见度值的气象因子主要有前一时次能见度值、过去1小时内相对湿度变化、前一时次相对湿度和过去3小时风速平均,回归预报方程模型整体显著有效,回代检验和试报效果较好。Based on the weather data of Dalian Airport from 2010 to 2017 and using SPSS 18.0 data analysis software,this paper studies the factors affecting the visibility of spring fog in the airport.The selected forecast factors include wind direction,wind speed,temperature,t-td and relative humidity etc.Then through principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis method,the forecasting factors are screened and the linear regression model is established to find out the main meteorological factors and their influence rules of visibility variation in foggy days in spring.Finally,the residual analysis and the equation back test and experiment are carried out.The results show that the meteorological factors that significantly affect the visibility mainly include the previous visibility,the relative humidity change in the past hour,the previous relative humidity and the past three hours wind speed average.The regression model is significantly effective as a whole,and the regression test and experiment is good.

关 键 词：主成份分析 逐步回归 回代检验 试报 

分 类 号：V321.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]