基于平均市销率估值法对科创板拟上市企业估值的研究  

Research on the valuation of kechuang stock exchange planning listed enterprises based on average market sales rate valuation method

作　　者：张海鹏 朱家明[2] Zhang Haipeng;Zhu Jiaming(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《湖南文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期1-7,29,共8页Journal of Hunan University of Arts and Science(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71934001);安徽财经大学校教研究项目(acxkjsjy201803zd)。

摘　　要：基于对中国A股市场和美国NASDAQ市场中流动性数据和基本面数据的分析,采用逐步回归方法求得2个市场的市销率回归方程,然后运用时间序列方法和灰色预测模型预测相关指标未来一年的数据,最后结合回归方程计算平均市销率。研究表明,我国首批科创板企业上市后的平均市销率比美国NASDAQ市场高33%,其投资价值相对较低,并从科创板申报企业的经营特点、科创板注册制度和投资者结构特点3方面进行解释并提出建议。Based on the analysis of liquidity data and fundamental data in China's A-share market and the NASDAQ market,the regression equations of the two markets are obtained by using the stepwise regression method;then,the characteristics of different markets and different index data were analyzed,and the data of relevant indexes in the next year are predicted by using the time series method and the grey prediction model flexibly;finally,the average Price-to-sales Ratio was calculated by regression equation.The research showed that the average Price-to-sales Ratio of the first batch of science and technology innovation board enterprises in China is 33%higher than that of the NASDAQ market,and the investment value of the former is relatively low.It also can be explained and put forward suggestions from three aspects:the operational characteristics of Sci-Tech innovation board Enterprises,registration system and investor structure characteristics of the enterprises applying for the science and technology innovation board.

关 键 词：科创板 平均市销率估值 逐步回归模型 时间序列预测 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]