西藏人口转变特征及其经济效应研究  

On the Characteristics of Demographic Transition in Tibetand its Economic Effects

作　　者：杨帆 刘金华[2] YANG Fan;LIU Jin-hua(Population Research Institute of West China Economic Research Center,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 610074;Institute of Economics,Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences,Chengdu,Sichuan 610072)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心人口研究所,四川成都610074 [2]四川省社会科学院经济研究所,四川成都610072

出　　处：《西藏大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期158-166,共9页Journal of Tibet University

基　　金：2015年度国家社会科学基金青年项目“西藏人口转变研究”阶段性成果,项目号:15CRK023。

摘　　要：民主改革后西藏经济快速发展与人口转变有紧密联系,在全面建成小康社会新的历史起点上谋划未来经济发展,西藏也须合理预期人口变动及其经济效应。西藏人口转变总体符合经典人口转变进程的一般规律,但进程较全国及其他省(市、自治区)启动更晚,虽相对滞后但推进速度更快;西藏人口转变进程开端时的人口自然增长率较高,未来走向将由人口生育水平的变化主导。西藏人口转变带来的人口红利对经济增长有显著积极作用,但贡献度将逐渐弱化。未来经济发展中劳动力供给相对充分,经济系统对劳动力的需求将从数量导向转为质量导向,因此须对劳动力结构变化有充分预期和准备。为促进经济持续健康发展,西藏应着力优化人口管理服务体系,完善人口就业政策体系,加快推动教育事业发展,并注重区域、城乡间的平衡发展。The rapid economic development of Tibet after its democratic reform in 1959 is closely related to its de⁃mographic transition.Thus,Tibet must reasonably anticipate the population change and its economic effect while it plans the future economic development to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects.In gen⁃eral,Tibet's demographic transition conforms to the general rules of the typical demographic transition process,but it started later than that of the whole country and other provinces(cities and autonomous regions).At the be⁃ginning of the demographic transition,the natural population growth rate of Tibet was relatively high,and the fu⁃ture trend will be dominated by the change of fertility level.The demographic dividend brought by the demo⁃graphic transition has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of Tibet,but its contribution will be gradually less and less.In the future,the supply of labor force for economic developmentwill be relatively suffi⁃cient,and the demand for labor force in the economic system will change from quantity-oriented to quality-ori⁃ented.Therefore,it is necessary to fully anticipate and prepare for the change of labor force structure.In order to promote sustainable and healthy economic development,Tibet should strive to optimize its population man⁃agement service system,improve its employment policy system,accelerate its development of education,and pay attention to the balanced development between regions and between urban and rural areas.

关 键 词：西藏 人口转变 经济 发展 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]