高质量发展下宏观杠杆率结构失衡的测度、影响与调控  

Measurement,Influence and Regulation of the Structural Imbalance of Macro Leverage Ratio under High Quality Development

作　　者：李沂[1] 闫倩 Li Yi;Yan Qian(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an International Studies University)

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学经济金融学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2020年第4期103-119,共17页Journal of Macro-quality Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173165);陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2015KRM031)的资助。

摘　　要：利用2015至2019年统计数据,在对宏观杠杆率结构失衡总体状况进行测度的基础上,通过构建Bayesian VAR模型,对宏观杠杆率结构失衡的影响进行分析,研究结果表明:我国宏观杠杆率已处于明显的结构性失衡状态,宏观杠杆率结构失衡可借助全要素生产率的改变,对实体经济投入产出效率产生冲击,进而对经济高质量发展的内生动力产生制约;宏观杠杆率结构失衡可通过影响投资与消费增速,加剧经济整体波动性,并借助债务-通缩效应,对物价与收入分配产生冲击。此外,受新冠疫情影响,我国宏观杠杆率结构失衡还将进一步加深,对未来经济的高质量发展必将产生极为不利的影响。这就要求我国在实施积极财政与货币政策基础上,不断改善政府部门杠杆率结构,适度提高金融部门杠杆率水平,以推动“稳增长”目标实现,促进宏观杠杆率结构优化调整;应综合利用多种政策工具组合,有效降低非金融企业部门对宏观杠杆率结构失衡的贡献,并通过金融政策与限购政策,将居民部门杠杆率控制在合理范围内,以遏制宏观杠杆率持续上涨与结构失衡的加剧;还应进一步加快推进供给侧结构性改革,从根本上推动宏观杠杆率结构的优化与平衡,并为经济高质量发展提供持续动力。Based on the statistical data from 2015 to 2019,this paper measures the degree of structural imbalance of macro leverage ratio in China,and analyzes the impact of structural imbalance of macro leverage ratio by using the Bayesian VAR model.The results show that China's macro leverage ratio has been in an obvious structural imbalance.The imbalance of macro leverage ratio structure can have an impact on the input-output efficiency of the real economy by virtue of the change of total factor productivity,and then restrict the internal driving force of high quality economic development.The structural imbalance of macro leverage ratio can aggravate the overall economic volatility by affecting the growth of investment and consumption,and impact the distribution of prices and income by means of debt-deflation effect.In addition,due to the impact of COVID-19,the imbalance of China's macro leverage ratio will deepen further,which will have a very adverse impact on the high quality economic development in the future.This requires that on the basis of proactive fiscal and monetary policies,China should constantly improve the leverage ratio structure of government sectors and moderately increase the leverage ratio level of financial sectors,so as to facilitate the realization of the goal of‘steady growth’and promote the optimization and adjustment of the structure of macro leverage ratio.A comprehensive combination of various policy tools should be used to effectively reduce the contribution of non-financial corporate sector to the structural imbalance of the macro leverage ratio,and the leverage ratio of the household sector should be controlled within a reasonable range through financial policies and purchase restriction policies,so as to prevent the continuous rise of the macro leverage ratio and the aggravation of the structural imbalance.Efforts should be made to further accelerate supply-side structural reform,fundamentally improve and balance the structure of the macro leverage ratio,and provide sustained impetus f

关 键 词：宏观杠杆率 经济增长 Bayesian VAR模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]